The LPL Didn’t Get Better. It Got Worse.

I watched late into the night and could not sleep.

This bad feeling did not start today. From the first split of the year, something about LPL matches felt off. Games looked close. The camera cut around. There were plenty of kills, lively teamfights, and a busy chat. After enough matches, the pattern became clear. The closeness was not weak teams getting stronger. It was top teams losing their grip. Many games were messy brawls: unclear draft flexibility, early tempo that depended on the opponent handing things over, mid-game macro trades going back and forth, and late teamfights where whoever screwed up first lost. The games were lively. The competitive strength was thin.

First Stand and MSI were passable. Top Esports gave people high blood pressure during that stretch, but the other teams mostly looked normal. I kept telling myself it was internal adjustment, an unlearned patch, something that would fix itself by Worlds. By the third split, the problem was obvious.

iG’s godlike run into Worlds now looks less like iG being strong and more like other teams being bad. iG has aggression, mechanics, and the courage to fight early. Those are strengths. But if a team can go on a godlike run in the league, the region’s defense, macro discipline, and mid-game pressure have gone wrong. A team that thrives on early chaos wins all the way through not because that path is correct, but because nobody can stabilize the game and put them down.

BLG still looked like the only team far ahead. In the first two splits they could stumble in the regular season, then win the playoff title, which created the illusion that someone in the league could hold the floor. In the third split final, AL kicked them to death. AL losing to KC made my jaw drop. Everyone knows AL’s ceiling is low. Now even their floor is gone. Their third-split title may have been only because the other teams were worse. If a region’s champion is just the least bad team in a bad field, that cover will not last at Worlds.

People keep saying the regional gap has narrowed and this year will be exciting. Maybe the gap that narrowed is not LPL versus LCK. Maybe it is LPL versus Europe, North America, and the wildcard regions. GEN and HLE drawing iG and Top Esports still feels familiar. Top Esports especially looked awful from draft to gameplay. They did not look like a team at Worlds. Getting flattened in 24 minutes cannot be explained by a top laner’s visa alone. Even wildcard teams probably would not get beaten that badly. The visa issue can explain some laning and some draft problems. It cannot explain the resource trades, teamfight positions, and decision-making collapse. That was not a one-man-down problem. The whole team’s thinking and execution were below Worlds level.

Among the four teams, iG had the best content. They built a 1-for-4 lead early. Rookie kept getting picked off in the mid game, Chovy’s Akali took over, and GEN flipped the game through macro play. That is understandable. You are facing GEN, and Chovy’s mid-game pressure on Akali is there. iG’s problem is the old one. They can create content but cannot close games. They have early aggression but lack mid-to-late discipline. At least they tried. At least there was some Worlds-level resistance.

The other three were a mess. BLG and AL got beaten by the European and North American No. 2 and No. 4 seeds and trailed in gold from start to finish. The opponents did not play that well either. They gave away chances, and you could not take them. That is the painful part. Losing to a stronger opponent is acceptable. Losing because you cannot take the chances you are given means the problem is internal. Drafts make no sense. Early tempo never starts. Mid-game resource trades are half a beat slow. Teamfight positions shatter on contact. You watch the gold graph fall and cannot organize one decent counterattack. That helplessness is worse than getting crushed.

Since the Swiss stage was introduced, this is the first time LPL has lost every first-round match. Day one felt like S5. The hyped LGD went out 0-3. iG failed to escape a group with no Korean teams. EDG got kicked to death by FNC in the quarterfinals. Do not talk about the title yet. Hope we do slightly better than S5 and thank the heavens.

The format gives us one piece of good news. After the switch to Swiss, an internal LPL matchup should eventually carry at least one team into the top eight. For now, we do not have to worry about getting mocked by the VALORANT side. Is that good news? The format bonus can guarantee a top-eight spot. It cannot guarantee regional strength. Getting carried in through an internal matchup and fighting your way in through international matches are different things. You can say “just get into the top eight first.” The audience is not stupid. The teams are not stupid. Everyone knows how that spot was obtained.

My biggest fear is not that LPL will fail to win the title. A title needs timing, patch, draw, form, and on-stage execution. My biggest fear is that we cannot even lose in a way we understand. Lose to GEN and you know it is a macro gap. Lose to HLE and you know it is lane pressure and teamfight coordination. Lose to the European and North American No. 2 and No. 4 seeds while trailing in gold from start to finish, and you cannot find a clear direction for the review. That is the problem.

So tonight, do not rush to talk about the title. Watch round two. See whether the drafts are clean, the early tempo starts, and the mid-game macro discipline returns. Hope we do slightly better than S5. Hope the international losses stop looking this ugly. The Swiss stage has room for error. Room for error is not a cover. Day one can be cold hands, nerves, or a patch not fully understood. If round two looks the same in draft and gameplay, then it is not “feels like S5 again.” It is a problem.

I watched late into the night and could not sleep because I care. People who do not care went to bed long ago. The more you care, the more you feel how thin LPL’s foundation is this year. It is not one lost match. It is not one player throwing. The region’s competitive quality is declining. In the league it looks lively. Against international competition, the weaknesses show.

Go to sleep. We still have to watch the adjustments tomorrow. If round two is the same, that is when the alarm should go off.