Odds on! How did the bookies favourite do at Eurovision? (2007-2019)

Pre-contest predictions are always a tricky one when it comes to Eurovision. Sometimes the excitement of a strong song or a spectacular music video can mean a song is the odds on favourite to win, but then come Eurovision week fails to make the same impact.

In this article we are going to have a look at the bookies favourite to win each year from 2007-2020, and see if their predictions were right, or didn’t have a Scooby-doo on what they were thinking.

Note: as Eurovision 2020 did not take place I will not be reviewing the odds for this year.

2007: Favourite to win- Switzerland (5/1)

Actual Placing- Did not qualify for the final (20th in the semi-final)

We start off with possibly the most inaccurate prediction of all. DJ Bobo’s “Vampires Are Alive”, accompanied by a slick music video and song, seemed poised to gain Switzerland their first victory since 1988. But come Eurovision, very poor staging (with mannequins on stage replacing the hordes of “vampires” in the music video) and an overall a pretty shaky performance, they were nowhere near qualifying. It didn’t help also that in that semi-final, only ten of 28 countries would qualify (which was changed to two semi-finals the following year).

The winner that year, Serbia, were 3rd in the odds

2008: Favourite to win- Russia (7/2)

Actual Placing: 1st place

The bookies were absolutely right on this one, with Dima Bilan’s ‘Believe’ winning the trophy in Belgrade that year. He may have won, but it certainly was not a popular result in the auditorium that year, with many boos when they received points.

Notably, novelty act Dustin the Turkey (representing Ireland) was 3rd favourite to win this year!

2009: Favourite to win- Norway (6/4)

Actual Placing: 1st place

Two in a row for the bookies! Alexander Rybak’s “Fairytale” scored the record amount of points for that time period and under the combined jury/televote system (which was changed in 2016). They also have the record for the biggest gap between first and second place at that time (144 points, with Iceland coming second). The song is well engrained in popular culture, and he would represent Norway again in 2018.

2010: Favourite to win: Germany (5/2)

Actual placing: 1st place

A very popular song that year, with the crowd singing along and it sailing to a comfortable victory in Oslo that year. Lena would then represent Germany the following year, placing 10th.

2011: Favourite to win: France (4/1)

Actual placing: 15th

A disappointing result for Amaury Vassili, “Songu” was tipped to be Frances first victory since 1977, but from the start of the voting failed to make any real impact.

Winners that year Azerbaijan were relative outsiders at 7th favourite to win (12/1 odds), and despite a hideous vocal performance took the title.

2012: Favourite to win: Sweden (9/4)

Actual result: 1st place

Odds on favourite throughout the build up to the contest and Eurovision week: Loreen stormed to victory with her song “Euphoria”. They very nearly toppled Norway’s previous record for most points scored (just 15 points shy), and the song became a hit across Europe (even reaching #3 in the UK).

2013: Favourite to win: Denmark (6/4)

Actual result: 1st place

The bookies are pretty accurate so far! Emmelie de Forest impressed audiences with pop banger infused with hints of Irish music “Only Teardrops”. It was a comfortable win and Denmark’s second win post 2000.

2014: Favourite to win: Armenia (6/4)

Actual result: 4th place

Armenia were looking to secure their first win with Aram MP3’s “Not Alone”, but could only manage fourth place. The actual winner, Conchita Wurst’s “Rise like a Phoenix”, wasn’t even in the top 15 highest odds before the contest (lower than 66/1 odds to win). Conchita’s win ended a long winless drought for Austria (their only other victory was 1966) and made Conchita the first drag queen to win the contest.

Ironically, Mr MP3 had criticised Ms Wurst for their performance not being “natural”. We gotta love some karma ladies!

2015: Favourite to win: Sweden (6/4)

Actual result: 1st place

Man’s Zelmerlow’s “Heroes” brought a pop banger mixed with country elements (similar to an Avicii, who was hugely popular at the time) and used screen effects to really take the song to the next level. Another clear victory for Sweden, asserting their dominance in Eurovision through the 2010’s.

2016: Favourite to win: Russia (7/4)

Actual result: 3rd

Using screen effects just like Mans in the previous year, Sergey Lazarev impressed audiences with “You Are The Only One”. They lost out to Ukraine, whose song 1944 was nothing less than controversial. The song lyrics were about the deportation of the Crimean Tatars in the 1940s, by the Soviet Union. From insider sources, the result came down to the final televote announcement, and apparently was immensely intense in the green room.

2017: Favourite to win: Italy (13/10)

Actual result: 6th

“Occidentali’s Karma” was a viral sensation before the contest and a show in to win, and even had it’s own dance move. In the end however, an underwhelming performance meant Italy could only manage 6th.

Portugal took the title this year with Salvador Sobral’s “Amar Pelos Dois”. With its simplistic but powerful staging in a sea of countries opting for the effects route, the song scored over 700 points and secured Portugal their first ever victory (and also first ever top five placing).

2018: Favourite to win: Cyprus (Winning chance 38%)

Actual result: 2nd

Eleni Foureria’s “Fuego” was very under the radar until the week of the contest, where their first rehearsal stunned everyone and they shot up the odds. They narrowly lost to Israel, who won with Netta’s “Toy”. “Fuego” continues to be a gay bar banger, and many fans are eagerly anticipating Eleni’s return to the contest to hopefully achieve Cyprus’ first ever victory.

2019: Favourite to win: The Netherlands (50% chance of winning)

Actual result: 1st

Duncan Lawrence secured The Netherlands first win since 1975 with “Arcade”, and due to Covid-19, the contest will be held in The Netherland in 2021 .