Box Office Stunner: 'Michael' Rocketing to an Other-Worldly $100 Million U.S. Debut

In a history-making moonwalk, Antoine Fuqua's Michael Jackson biopic is launching light-years ahead of expectations at the domestic box office, with a projected $94 million to $100 million domestic opening and a global launch north of $200 million .

Heading into the weekend, Michael was tracking to open in the $65 million to $70 million range domestically which would already have been enough to boast the biggest opening of all time for a music biopic, not adjusted for inflation. The current record-holder is Universal's Straight Outta Compton ($60.1 million), followed by Fox's Freddie Mercury biopic Bohemian Rhapsody ($55 million) .

The film's super-sized victory is a much-needed triumph for Lionsgate, marking its biggest opening in years. The mini-major studio is understandably attempting to manage expectations by giving a wide domestic opening range of $90 million to $100 million. But rival studios who are rooting for Lionsgate can hardly contain their excitement .

The Opening Day Numbers

Michael grossed a super-sized $38.5 million on Friday alone , its official opening day. Audience exit scores quickly went platinum, and the film attracted virtually every demographic, led by Black and female moviegoers .

An inkling of Michael's potential was revealed when the film earned $12.6 million from Wednesday and Thursday previews , on par with 2026 sleeper blockbuster Project Hail Mary, and ahead of such event pics as Dune: Part Two and Oppenheimer, which both reported preview grosses in the $10 million range .

The big unknown was how front-loaded Michael would be. By Saturday, it was clear it wasn't just appointment viewing for hard-core fans. Strong word of mouth is working magic: the film was graced with a 96 percent audience score on Rotten Tomatoes the best ever for the genre PostTrak exit scores in the low 90s, and a definite recommend of 85 percent (levels rarely seen). It didn't earn a perfect grade on CinemaScore, but it did earn a good enough A- .

The Audience: Diverse and Enthusiastic

Nearly 40 percent of the film's gross is coming from Imax and other premium large-format screens. On Thursday, headlines focused on Michael's worrisome Rotten Tomatoes critics' score, which bounced between 29 and 33 percent. By Thursday night, the critics' score had risen to 40 percent. While far from ideal, strong audience exits have more than made up for it.

Black moviegoers vastly over-indexed, making up 38 percent of opening-day ticket buyers . But the movie succeeded in playing to a relatively diverse audience, with Latinos accounting for 26 percent of Friday's audience, followed by white moviegoers at 26 percent .

Overseas Performance

Overseas where Jackson is an even bigger draw Michael is likewise off to a record-breaking start for an opening in the $114 million range (one exception is Japan, where Jackson's fanbase is enormous, though the film will open there later).

Michael is opening in 82 markets this weekend , excluding Japan. It is coming in No. 1 in 64 of those and setting records for a music biopic in 63. It began unfurling in many key markets Wednesday, earning $16.6 million on its first day for an early running total of $18.5 million including previews. It earned another $13.2 million Thursday for an early total of $31.7 million .

International highlights through Thursday (ranked by estimated openings through Sunday, not adjusted for inflation):

United Kingdom & Ireland ($13.8 million estimated) : Served up the biggest opening day for a musical biopic of all time with $2.6 million, ahead of the Wednesday opening of Bohemian Rhapsody and well above the Friday openings of Elvis and Rocketman.

France ($10.3 million estimated) : Scored $2.6 million on Wednesday to rank as the biggest opening day ever for any biopic, coming in well above the Wednesday openings of Oppenheimer and Bohemian Rhapsody.

Mexico ($9.3 million estimated) : Opened to $1 million on Thursday, three times more than Bohemian Rhapsody, and continues to account for 62 percent of all tickets bought.

Italy ($8.1 million estimated) : Earned a strong $816,000 Thursday for a two-day total of $2.1 million, commanding 69 percent of the market.

Germany ($6.7 million estimated) : Its opening day earnings of $1.3 million beat Bohemian Rhapsody, delivering a strong Thursday for a running total of $2.1 million. (Michael made its world premiere at the Berlin Film Festival earlier this year in a nod to the importance of the King of Pop to fans overseas.)

Other top-performing markets include Brazil , where Michael scored the top opening day ever for a Hollywood biopic, thanks to a strong first day and record previews that trumped both Rhapsody and Oppenheimer .

The Controversy and the Film's Third Act

Michael's road to the big screen was long and hit a major delay when the decision was made by producer Graham King, Lionsgate, and the Jackson Estate to avoid a legal challenge and end the movie before the superstar became engulfed in allegations of child sexual abuse. While rumors began swirling in the very late part of the 1980s, the first public accusation didn't emerge until 1993.

The film's initial budget of $155 million reportedly came in closer to $200 million after tens of millions were spent on additional photography needed to rejigger the third act . While there is rampant talk of a sequel, some question whether it will really happen, since it would be impossible to avoid the darker years that followed .

The Hollywood Reporter chief film critic David Rooney noted in his review: "Fuqua and screenwriter John Logan don't exactly break the mold with Michael, nor do they stuff it with major revelations. But they tap into a vein of melancholy underlaying the stratospheric success that's surprisingly affecting. The online mob will be sharpening their pitchforks given the movie's failure to address the accusations of child sexual abuse that tarnished Michael Jackson's legacy. But the filmmakers get around that by focusing on his early career, ending with the 1988 Bad World Tour concert in London, years before allegations first surfaced. The epilogue card reading 'His story continues' does some heavy lifting."

The Record-Breaking Implications

When Michael first came onto tracking three weeks ago, the domestic opening range looked to be $55 million to $60 million. While still a great number, subsequent spikes in interest indicated that Lionsgate was successful in tapping into the nostalgia factor, inspiring infrequent moviegoers to return to the multiplex in droves for the first time since the pandemic, or sparking interest among the most avid moviegoing demographic, Gen Zers.

The film is also one of the biggest biopic openings of all time for any biopic. It is also going to surpass Project Hail Mary to score the top domestic opening of 2026 for a non-franchise, non-tentpole film, and is the sixth-biggest opening in the history of Lionsgate , behind the first four Hunger Games installments and Summit's final Twilight movie .

The Official Statement

Lionsgate Motion Picture Group Chair Adam Fogelson issued a statement early Saturday thanking all those involved, including Fuqua, King, Jaafar Jackson, and the Jackson estate.

"Above all, it reflects the tremendous outpouring of love and affection from moviegoers around the world, underscoring the strength and vitality of the theatrical box office," he said. "If you give audiences what they want, they will come."

Kino and Lionsgate will release Michael in Japan in June .