The Rising Influence of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: A Game-Changer in the 2024 Presidential Race?
A Look Into 2024 Presidential Candidate: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Recent Polling
The 2024 presidential race has taken an unexpected turn with recent polling indicating former President Trump leading by seven points. However, the emergence of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as a third-party candidate adds a new dimension to the electoral landscape.
According to the National Harris X messenger survey, Trump holds a 48% to 41% lead over Joe Biden. When RFK Jr. is included, Trump's lead expands to nine points, with RFK Jr. securing 21% of the general electorate.
RFK Jr.'s favorability, eclectic policy proposals, and steady campaign could position him as a viable alternative. Recent polling from Gallup has shown Kennedy to be the most favorable of the candidates with 52% favorable to 34% unfavorable. Trump has 42% favorable to 57% unfavorable, and Biden comes in with 41% favorable to 58% unfavorable.
Smear Tactics Against RFK Jr.?
Despite attempts by Democrats to diminish RFK Jr.'s appeal, focusing on conspiracy theories and 'anti-vaccine' stances, his popularity remains relatively unaffected. The Republicans have given RFK Jr. a platform before, especially when they thought he would hurt Biden more than Trump. However, as the election grows closer, the Republican party may try to smear RFK Jr. if they find it necessary.
Now, the RFK Jr. factor adds another layer. He seems to be hurting Biden more than Trump, challenging the assumption that he might split the anti-Trump vote. Even without him, Trump maintains a significant lead. As we follow these developments, we'll see if more media attention is given to RFK Jr. as an independent candidate, although he has received minimal media attention so far, and most of it has been negative.
Ballot Access Challenge
RFK Jr. aims to get on the ballot in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. So far, Kennedy is already on in Utah and is collecting signatures in 15 states. He has gathered enough signatures in some of these states like New Hampshire. Certain states' windows for ballot access haven’t opened yet, so it remains to be seen if RFK Jr. can make it on everyone's ballot.
Where Does RFK Jr.’s Support Come From?
Given his unique policy blend and potential appeal to both ends of the spectrum, it remains to be seen how RFK Jr.'s candidacy will affect the political landscape. RFK Jr. is currently winning by more than 10% with 18-30 year olds. He's winning with everyone under 45 years old, winning with independent voters, and pulling second with Hispanic voters (34% Biden, 31% Kennedy, 30% Trump). A New York Times/Siena College poll found that 26 percent of Black voters in swing states support Kennedy in a three-candidate race, while Biden receives 56% and Trump gets 10%.
RFK Jr. identifies a crucial point - Trump's small but dedicated base within the Republican party. Will some of the two-thirds of the Republican party that's not part of the dedicated base vote for Trump, or may some leave for third-party candidates? On the Democrat side, Democrats voicing their concerns with Joe Biden may signal potential support for RFK Jr. In the six main battleground states (Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), as well as several other states, RFK is within striking distance. If he could gain around 4% more support from the Democrat and Republican parties, he could have a chance to take some states.
As the 2024 presidential race unfolds, the role of RFK Jr. as a third-party candidate introduces intriguing possibilities.
References:
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/18/rfk-jr-atlanta-georgia-2024-00136484
About the Creator
US News and Politics
To achieve a balanced perspective on American news, explore sources with diverse viewpoints and be mindful of potential bias in reporting.
Keep reading
More stories from US News and Politics and writers in Writers and other communities.
Andrew Yang Warns Against Biden-Trump Rematch: Endorses Dean Phillips as Alternative
In a recent interview on X, former Democratic presidential hopeful Andrew Yang expressed concern over the prospect of a Biden-Trump rematch in November. Yang highlighted Donald Trump's consistent lead over President Joe Biden in the polls and argued for the need for an alternative nominee. Yang has endorsed Dean Phillips, a Longshot Democratic candidate, who is gaining attention for his policy proposals and fresh perspective. Let's delve into Yang's thoughts on the current political landscape, Phillips' platform, and the challenges he faces in the race.
By US News and Politics3 months ago in Potent
2024 high businessn design generation technology
Introduction The Business Model Canvas consists of nine building blocks that explain the reason for a company's success. The Value Proposition Canvas is an extension of the Business Model Canvas. It is primarily focused on developing a strong value proposition which is the central element of a sustainable business model.
By Logan Miller 2 days ago in Writers
Comments
There are no comments for this story
Be the first to respond and start the conversation.