How Long before Petrol Cars are Obsolete?

This is a big question, and depends where in the world you live, and how proactive your Government is in replacing petrol-driven cars with new electric vehicles.

Where I live, in Australia, we have had a lack of policies aimed at this new technology, and as a result, people here have misconceptions about electric cars. These include how much towing power they have (as Australians love their boats, caravans and camper-trailers), and the range that they have before they need a recharge.

But there is a Federal election due in the first half of 2022, with the Opposition promising incentives to make electric cars more affordable.

At this stage, electric cars are more expensive than petrol vehicles, with the cheapest on the market about $43,990.

In the UK, the Government has put a ban on the sale of petrol and diesel cars by 2030, and hybrids by 2035, to speed up the uptake of this new technology and drive down greenhouse emissions. Unlike Australia, in the UK people are very keen on these vehicles, with their sales and hydrogen-driven vehicles (the other alternative to petrol and diesel cars) tripling in October 2020 compared to the same month in 2019.

In addition to this, the UK Government is rapidly increasing the network of charging points for electric vehicles, including putting them onto lamp-posts for ease of access. There has been a rapid growth in the UK network of charging points.

In the USA, the Californian State Government’s clean air agency, the California Air Resources Board (CARB), has the mandate of defining and driving down the emissions of vehicles. In 1990, it implemented the Low-emission Vehicle Program, to address reducing vehicle pollutants and thus reducing smog in that State’s cities.

In that year, it also adopted the Zero-emission Vehicle Program, to promote zero-emission vehicles. This led to the Advanced Clean Car Program (ACC) in 2012, which included regulations for vehicles producing smog-forming emissions, vehicles producing greenhouse gas emissions and for zero-emissions vehicles (such as electric and hydrogen powered vehicles).

Importantly, in 2020, the Californian Governor, Gavin Newsom issued a directive that by 2035, all new vehicles sold in California would be the zero-emissions vehicles, thus putting this State on a similar trajectory to the UK.

While there is no ban on the sale of petrol and diesel vehicles in this legislation, it imposes strict regulations on the production of all vehicles in that State, as well as incentives for vehicle manufacturers to develop longer-range batteries in their electric vehicles.

It is important to note that ten other US States have enacted the Californian Zero-emission vehicle regulations.

There are other countries that have proposed bans on the sale of petrol and diesel powered vehicles, including China, Japan, South Korea, Iceland, Denmark, Sweden, Slovenia, Norway, Italy, France, Belgium, Portugal, Canada, Sri Lanka, Cabo Verdi and Costa Rica. In July this year, the European Commission proposed a reduction of 100% on the emissions of all new cars sold in its member states by 2035.

In conclusion, the move towards electric vehicles is gaining momentum, as is the banning of sales of the vehicles that they are replacing. However, there is still a way to go before all vehicles on the planet are electric. This is due to entrenched opposition to this, particularly in developing countries such as India, which estimated, that, despite predictions favouring electric vehicles in 2018, it predicted that in 2030, 70%pa of all vehicles sold there would be fossil-fuel powered.

Sources:

ABC News (Australia): Infrastructure Victoria panel calls for end of new petrol car sales, amid slow take-up of electric vehicles - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-08/the-radical-idea-to-increase-victoria-s-electric-vehicles/100052474

ABC News (Australia): Labor promises cheaper electric cars and cash for solar powered batteries, if it wins next federal election - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-31/labor-promises-cheaper-electric-cars/100039794

TopGear.com: Here's what the 2030 petrol and diesel car ban means - https://www.topgear.com/car-news/electric/heres-what-2030-petrol-and-diesel-car-ban-means

Zap Map: EV Charging Stats 2022 - https://www.zap-map.com/statistics/

Wikipedia.org: Zero-Emission Vehicle Program - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Air_Resources_Board#Zero-Emission_Vehicle_Program

Wikipedia.org: Phase-out of fossil fuel vehicles - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehicles