BYD’s September Sales Hit 463,600. The Overseas Story Is Bigger.

On October 1, BYD reported September sales of 463,600 vehicles. Passenger vehicles accounted for 456,700. Overseas passenger vehicles and pickups hit 179,900, up 153.9% from a year earlier.

The monthly numbers have climbed for five months. April: 321,100. May: 383,500. June: 403,500. July: 419,200. August: 440,300. September: 463,600. That is 142,500 more vehicles in September than in April.

The cumulative decline is shrinking. At the end of July, BYD’s year-to-date sales were 2,227,700, down 10.54%. By the end of August, 2,668,000, down 6.84%. By the end of September, 3,131,600, down 3.94%. Two months, 6.6 percentage points.

BYD is making up ground it lost earlier in the year.

Overseas sales are doing most of the pulling. September’s 179,900 was up 153.9% year-on-year. That is 38.8% of passenger vehicle sales. The monthly overseas line: April 135,100. May 160,600. June 175,300. July about 180,000. August 189,500. September 179,900. It has held near 180,000 for months.

Europe is a big part of that. In the first eight months, BYD’s European registrations reached 234,100, up 144.1%. In the UK battery-electric market, its share is above 7%, ahead of Tesla, BMW, and Volkswagen. It is also expanding in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. From January to September, overseas passenger vehicle and pickup sales totaled 1,337,800. The annual overseas target was raised from 1.3 million to 1.5 million. Wang Chuanfu said in June he expected to exceed it. The gap is 162,200. September alone brought in 179,900.

Domestic sales are recovering, but slowly. September domestic sales were 282,900, the highest since February. Year-on-year, they were still down 12.97%. The comparison base is brutal. September 2025 was strong, and Q4 2025 got an extra pull-forward from the expiring purchase tax incentive. A return to year-on-year growth may not come until late this year or early next.

The month-on-month gain has a supply-side explanation. At the June shareholders meeting, Wang Chuanfu said this year’s sales depend on battery output. As second-generation Blade Battery capacity ramps, it adds 20,000 to 30,000 units a month. The data fits. June: 403,500. July: 419,200, up 15,700. August: 440,300, up 21,100. September: 463,600, up 23,300. The monthly increment is about 20,000. No promotional stimulus showed up. The increment came from capacity.

Q4 has three moving parts.

New models. The Dynasty Network flagship sedan “Da Han” launches October 13. Presale price: 249,900 to 299,900 yuan. It is a D+ class battery-electric car with the second-generation Blade Battery across the line, 1,008 km CLTC range, and flash charging from 10% to 70% in five minutes. Fangchengbao Tai 9 has opened reservations. It is a full-size SUV with a 1.5T plug-in hybrid system and the second-generation Blade Battery, 310 km WLTC electric range, and 1,600 km combined range. It is planned for Q4. The third-generation Tang is also expected in Q4. Together they cover the 250,000 to 400,000 yuan band.

Overseas volume. Citi expects overseas monthly sales in the second half to stay between 180,000 and 200,000. BYD management has said the overseas target has room to rise.

Profit mix. JPMorgan estimates that in Q4, more than 30% of domestic sales will come from models priced above 200,000 yuan. In 2025, about 70% of sales were below 150,000 yuan. Average selling price and per-vehicle profit should improve. Citi forecasts Q4 core net profit of about 13.9 billion yuan, on domestic sales of 803,000 and exports of 607,000.

The risks are concrete.

Domestic year-on-year pressure. September domestic sales were 282,900, down 12.97%. The Q4 2025 base is extremely high.

Foreign exchange. In the first half of 2026, BYD’s net financial expenses were 5.096 billion yuan, mostly exchange losses. A year earlier, it booked a net gain of 3.247 billion yuan. The swing: 8.343 billion yuan. That is two-thirds of net profit attributable to shareholders in the same period. Overseas revenue was 52.57% of total revenue in the first half. More overseas sales means more currency exposure.

Overseas policy. The EU charges a 17.4% countervailing duty on BYD battery-electric vehicles, plus a 10% import tariff. Combined: 27.4%. After Thailand adjusted its new energy vehicle policy, the market share of Chinese new energy vehicles there fell from 47.3% to 11.65%, and BYD’s monthly sales dropped from a peak of 12,000. BYD’s Malaysia plant has stalled over unresolved conditions with the government. Local plants in Brazil and Hungary are the long-term fix. Short-term policy is not in BYD’s hands.

Add it up: 463,600 in September, five straight months of growth, cumulative decline narrowed from 10.54% to 3.94%, overseas sales near 180,000 a month, and Blade Battery capacity releasing about 20,000 units a month. In Q4, new models arrive and overseas sales push toward 200,000. Full-year cumulative growth, once uncertain, now looks likely.

October 13 is the first test. “Da Han” launches that day.