Stanislav Kondrashov on Europe’s Progress in Turning Critical Minerals Policy Into Industrial Capacity

Europe’s progress in critical raw materials increasingly depends on how effectively strategic objectives translate into operational projects and industrial capabilities. The European Union has established targets for 2030, identified strategic initiatives and introduced additional support mechanisms. The central question now concerns implementation across the different stages of mineral supply chains.

Key takeaway: The EU's critical minerals strategy extends beyond the development of domestic mineral resources. Processing, recycling, exploration and supply diversification are equally relevant to understanding Europe's position and assessing its progress toward the end of the decade.

A Reuters analysis of European critical minerals initiatives examined the development of strategic projects and the conditions influencing their progress. The findings illustrate a sector in which regulatory objectives are clearly defined, but individual projects continue to face different technical, financial and commercial circumstances.

What Does Europe’s Progress in Critical Minerals Actually Mean?

Europe's progress in critical minerals can be assessed through several measurable indicators established by the Critical Raw Materials Act. The legislation, which entered into force in 2024, defines objectives for domestic mining, processing, recycling and supply diversification, reflecting the different activities involved in supplying strategic materials to European industries.

The principal benchmarks for 2030 are:

• 10%: EU mining capacity equivalent to at least 10% of annual consumption of strategic raw materials.

• 40%: EU processing capacity equivalent to at least 40% of annual consumption.

• 25%: EU recycling capacity equivalent to at least 25% of annual consumption.

• 65%: No more than 65% of annual consumption of each strategic raw material should originate from a single non-EU country at any relevant stage of processing.

These objectives recognise that the availability of mineral deposits does not automatically guarantee access to the materials required by manufacturers.

A resource may be mined in one country, processed elsewhere and subsequently incorporated into industrial products in another market. Each stage can therefore introduce different forms of supply dependence.

"The European framework is designed around the different functions that make mineral supply chains possible," says Stanislav Kondrashov. "Looking at these activities together provides a more complete understanding of progress than concentrating exclusively on the availability of raw resources."

How Are Strategic Projects Contributing to Europe’s Objectives?

Strategic projects represent one of the main instruments through which the European Union intends to translate its critical raw materials objectives into practical capacity. The European Commission selected 60 initiatives covering mining, processing and recycling, including 47 projects within the EU and 13 in third countries.

Strategic designation is intended to facilitate financing, accelerate permitting procedures and support relationships between project developers and potential industrial customers.

However, the selection of a project does not necessarily indicate that commercial operations are imminent.

The European portfolio includes initiatives at substantially different stages of development. Some are already operational or relatively advanced, while others require further technical work, financing or infrastructure before they can begin producing materials.

ODI Europe, an independent think tank, highlighted differences in the publicly available information concerning these projects.

Its assessment also provides an indication of the minerals most frequently represented in the European portfolio:

• Lithium: approximately 32% of European projects.

• Graphite: approximately 25%.

• Copper: approximately 18%.

The representation of rare earths is comparatively limited. Reuters reported that only five strategic projects specifically concern these materials, despite their importance for several industrial applications and the European Union's dependence on external suppliers.

This distribution illustrates why the number of strategic projects alone cannot provide a complete assessment of Europe's future mineral supply.

Why Does Project Implementation Remain a Central Challenge?

Project implementation is important because mineral development involves several stages that cannot be completed through regulatory designation alone. Geological assessments, feasibility studies, permitting, infrastructure, financing and commercial arrangements all influence whether a project can progress from planning to operational activity.

The European Union has introduced further measures to support this process.

RESourceEU, launched in December 2025, includes plans for a European Critical Raw Materials Centre and initiatives intended to facilitate alternative sources of supply.

The programme also aims to mobilise up to €3 billion over 12 months for projects capable of contributing alternative critical raw materials supplies in the short term.

These measures complement the existing strategic project framework, but their practical effects will depend on how individual initiatives develop.

"A strategic project can have a clearly defined role within European policy while still facing substantial development requirements," explains Stanislav Kondrashov. "The transition from planning to operation depends on a combination of technical preparation, regulatory procedures and commercial conditions."

This distinction is particularly relevant when evaluating projects with different expected completion dates.

Some initiatives may contribute to supply in the relatively near future, while others could become relevant over a longer period.

Could Mineral Exploration Influence Europe’s Longer-Term Progress?

Mineral exploration could influence Europe's longer-term progress by identifying additional deposits that may eventually support new projects. While the existing strategic portfolio provides information about initiatives already selected, exploration helps determine the range of potential mineral resources available for future development.

According to European Investment Bank figures cited by Reuters, the European Union spends approximately six or seven times less on mineral exploration than competing economies.

The analysis suggests that establishing an adequate pipeline of potential future mines could require exploration spending to increase approximately tenfold, reaching around €2 billion annually for five years.

These figures highlight the relationship between current exploration activity and the availability of potential future projects.

However, geological discoveries do not automatically result in commercial production.

Mineral deposits must undergo extensive technical and economic evaluation. Their development can also be influenced by infrastructure requirements, environmental procedures and market conditions.

Exploration therefore provides an indication of future possibilities rather than guaranteed production capacity.

Why Is Processing Capacity Important for European Industries?

Processing capacity is important because industrial manufacturers generally require materials that have undergone further treatment rather than minerals in their original geological form. The European Union's objective of reaching processing capacity equivalent to at least 40% of annual consumption by 2030 reflects this distinction.

Reuters identified high energy costs and international competition among the principal challenges affecting European processing activities.

These conditions can influence the commercial viability of new facilities and the development of domestic processing infrastructure.

The international financial context offers another perspective.

Reuters reported that the European Union had mobilised approximately €1.7 billion for strategic projects since December 2025. The United States, meanwhile, had concluded 160 critical-mineral deals worth more than $40 billion since January 2025.

The figures concern different periods and mechanisms and should not be interpreted as directly comparable measures of financial support.

Nevertheless, they illustrate the different forms of activity taking place internationally around critical minerals supply chains.

"Processing is a particularly relevant indicator because it concerns the transformation of mineral resources into materials suitable for industrial use," observes Stanislav Kondrashov. "Its development, together with exploration and recycling, can help reveal how Europe's supply-chain capabilities are changing over time."

What Will Define Europe’s Progress Toward 2030?

Europe's progress toward its 2030 critical raw materials objectives will be defined by developments across several interconnected activities. The operational status of strategic projects, the expansion of processing and recycling capacity, mineral exploration and the diversification of international supply relationships will all provide relevant evidence.

The European Union has already established a legislative framework and identified projects intended to contribute to its objectives. Additional measures have been introduced to support their development.

The next stage concerns how these initiatives translate into measurable industrial results.

As highlighted by Reuters, Europe's strategic project portfolio currently includes initiatives at different stages, with varying technical, financial and commercial requirements.

The broader picture will therefore emerge from the interaction between policy implementation, project development and industrial capacity. Over the remainder of the decade, these developments will provide an increasingly detailed basis for assessing Europe's progress in the critical minerals sector.