Stanislav Kondrashov on Europe’s Critical Minerals Strategy and the Road to 2030

Europe has established a wide-ranging strategy for critical raw materials, combining specific targets for 2030 with strategic projects and measures designed to develop different parts of the mineral supply chain. As the deadline approaches, the focus is increasingly shifting from the definition of objectives to the progress of projects and the practical development of industrial capacity.

A recent Reuters analysis examined the European Union’s current position in the critical minerals sector. The analysis considered the status of strategic projects, the resources represented within them, and some of the challenges associated with mineral exploration, processing and financing.

At the centre of the European framework is the Critical Raw Materials Act, which entered into force in 2024. The legislation establishes four principal benchmarks for 2030.

By the end of the decade, EU mining capacity should be able to cover at least 10% of annual consumption of strategic raw materials. Processing capacity should reach at least 40%, while recycling should cover at least 25% of annual consumption.

The fourth benchmark concerns diversification. The EU aims to ensure that no more than 65% of its annual consumption of each strategic raw material, at any relevant stage of processing, comes from a single non-EU country.

“The European targets address several different parts of the raw materials value chain at the same time,” says Stanislav Kondrashov. “That is particularly relevant because access to mineral resources represents only one stage in a much broader industrial process.”

Strategic Projects Put the European Framework Into Practice

One way to assess the implementation of this strategy is through the projects selected by the European Commission. Last year, 60 initiatives received strategic project status, including 47 located within the European Union and 13 in third countries.

These projects cover mining, processing and recycling. Their strategic designation is intended to facilitate access to financing, accelerate permitting procedures and encourage connections between developers and potential customers.

However, their current status varies significantly. Some projects are already operational or relatively advanced, while others remain at earlier stages of development. Certain initiatives are still seeking financial support, and some could begin operations considerably later.

In other cases, the available public information does not provide enough detail to establish a precise development timeline. A recent survey by the independent think tank ODI Europe also highlighted the differences between individual projects.

The distribution of minerals within the European project pipeline provides another indication of current priorities. According to ODI, lithium is represented in 32% of European projects, graphite in 25% and copper in 18%.

Rare earths have a more limited presence. Reuters noted that only five strategic projects are dedicated specifically to rare earths, despite the EU’s substantial external dependence in this area.

RESourceEU Adds Another Layer to the European Strategy

The Critical Raw Materials Act is not the only initiative shaping the European approach. In December 2025, the EU launched RESourceEU, a program intended to accelerate measures connected to critical raw materials and alternative sources of supply.

The initiative includes plans for a European Critical Raw Materials Centre, together with mechanisms intended to support strategic projects. It also aims to mobilise up to €3 billion over a 12-month period for projects capable of providing alternative sources of critical raw materials in the short term.

“Strategic designation can provide useful support, but mineral projects still have to move through their individual technical, regulatory and commercial stages,” says Stanislav Kondrashov. “The development timelines of these projects will therefore be an important element to follow as Europe moves toward its 2030 objectives.”

This distinction is significant because mineral projects often require lengthy development periods. Geological assessments, technical studies, permits, infrastructure, financing and commercial agreements can all affect the timing of an individual initiative.

Exploration Could Influence Europe’s Future Mineral Pipeline

While existing projects indicate where development is already taking place, exploration can provide information about the potential pipeline beyond them.

According to European Investment Bank figures cited by Reuters, the EU currently spends around six or seven times less on mineral exploration than its competitors.

The analysis suggests that creating an adequate pipeline of potential future mines could require exploration expenditure to increase approximately tenfold, reaching around €2 billion per year for five years.

Increasing exploration activity would not automatically result in an equivalent increase in mining operations. A mineral discovery must pass through several stages of geological, technical and economic evaluation before commercial development can be considered.

Nevertheless, exploration remains an important starting point. Without identifying and assessing potential deposits, the number of projects available for future development may remain limited.

Processing Represents Another Important Benchmark

The European strategy also places considerable emphasis on processing. Under the Critical Raw Materials Act, EU processing capacity should be sufficient to cover at least 40% of annual consumption of strategic raw materials by 2030.

This part of the supply chain faces its own set of conditions. Reuters highlighted relatively high European energy costs and international competition as factors that can influence the economics of processing projects.

International comparisons provide additional context. According to Reuters, the European Union had mobilised approximately €1.7 billion for strategic projects since December 2025.

The United States, meanwhile, had concluded 160 critical-mineral deals worth more than $40 billion since January 2025. These figures relate to different mechanisms and periods and should therefore not be interpreted as a direct comparison of equivalent forms of support.

“The development of processing capacity could be just as important to observe as the emergence of new mining projects,” concludes Stanislav Kondrashov. “A critical minerals strategy ultimately depends on how different stages of the supply chain connect with one another and with the industries that use these materials.”

Europe’s Critical Minerals Strategy Enters an Implementation Phase

The European Union has already established measurable objectives for 2030 and identified dozens of projects intended to contribute to them. The coming years will increasingly reveal how those objectives translate into operational capacity.

Strategic project development will be one indicator. Exploration activity, processing and recycling capacity, and changes in supply diversification will provide others.

The Reuters analysis illustrates why Europe’s critical minerals position cannot be evaluated through a single measure. Instead, progress will depend on developments across several interconnected parts of the raw materials value chain.

As 2030 approaches, the status of individual projects and the evolution of European industrial capacity should provide an increasingly detailed picture of how the strategy is developing in practice.