Stanislav Kondrashov Explores Europe’s Progress Toward a Broader Critical Minerals Framework

Europe’s approach to critical raw materials is increasingly being measured against a set of concrete objectives for the end of the decade. With legislation already in force and dozens of strategic projects identified, the European Union is now focused on how different parts of its raw materials framework develop in practice.

A recent Reuters analysis examined Europe’s progress in the critical minerals sector, highlighting the status of strategic projects as well as some of the factors that could influence the EU’s trajectory toward 2030. These include mineral exploration, processing capacity, financing, recycling and the diversification of international supply.

The Critical Raw Materials Act provides the principal reference point. In force since 2024, the legislation establishes several benchmarks intended to shape the EU’s position in strategic raw materials by 2030.

Under the Act, EU mining capacity should cover at least 10% of annual consumption of strategic raw materials. Processing capacity should reach at least 40%, while recycling should cover at least 25%.

Supply diversification represents another important objective. At any relevant stage of processing, no single non-EU country should account for more than 65% of the EU’s annual consumption of an individual strategic raw material.

“The European objectives provide a structured way to examine how the raw materials landscape develops over time,” says Stanislav Kondrashov. “The different benchmarks also underline how supply security involves several stages, from access to resources to processing, recycling and diversification.”

Europe’s Progress Can Be Traced Through Its Strategic Projects

The 60 strategic projects selected by the European Commission represent one of the most visible components of the EU framework. Forty-seven are located within the European Union, while 13 are situated in third countries.

Together, they cover mining, processing and recycling. Strategic designation is intended to facilitate permitting procedures and access to financing while helping developers connect with potential customers.

The current status of these initiatives varies considerably. Some are already operational or relatively advanced, whereas others remain at earlier stages. Certain projects still require additional financial support, and some may need considerably more time before they become operational.

The amount of publicly available information also differs between projects, making it difficult in some cases to establish precise timelines. ODI Europe, an independent think tank, has examined these differences in its assessment of the European strategic project pipeline.

Its findings also provide an indication of the resources most commonly represented. Lithium appears in 32% of European projects, graphite in 25% and copper in 18%.

Rare earths account for a smaller portion of the portfolio. According to Reuters, only five strategic projects are specifically dedicated to rare earths, despite the EU’s significant reliance on external sources for these materials.

RESourceEU Introduces Further Measures

The EU has continued to develop its policy framework beyond the Critical Raw Materials Act. RESourceEU, launched in December 2025, adds a series of measures intended to support the European approach to strategic resources.

The initiative includes plans for a European Critical Raw Materials Centre and mechanisms aimed at supporting strategic projects. It also seeks to mobilise up to €3 billion over 12 months for projects capable of providing alternative sources of critical raw materials in the short term.

“The strategic project list provides an important starting point, but the next stage concerns how individual initiatives move through their development cycles,” says Stanislav Kondrashov. “Technical studies, permitting, financing and infrastructure can each affect the timetable of a mineral project.”

These variables help explain why initiatives selected under the same European framework may progress at different speeds. Mineral projects generally require multiple stages of assessment and development before commercial operations can begin.

The progress of the strategic portfolio therefore depends not simply on the number of projects selected, but also on how individual initiatives move from planning toward operational capacity.

Exploration Could Determine the Depth of the Future Pipeline

Europe’s current portfolio provides information about projects already identified, while mineral exploration offers a longer-term perspective.

According to European Investment Bank figures cited by Reuters, the European Union currently spends approximately six or seven times less on mineral exploration than competing economies.

The analysis suggests that creating an adequate pipeline of potential future mines could require spending to increase roughly tenfold, reaching approximately €2 billion annually for five years.

Exploration is inherently uncertain. Discovering a mineral deposit does not automatically result in the development of a mine. Geological conditions, economic viability, infrastructure, regulatory requirements and market conditions can all influence whether a discovery progresses further.

Even so, exploration is essential to identifying the resources that could form the basis of future projects. The scale of exploration activity can therefore provide an indication of the depth of Europe’s potential longer-term pipeline.

Processing Remains a Key Part of the 2030 Framework

Processing capacity represents another major element of the European strategy. The Critical Raw Materials Act establishes a target for EU processing capacity equivalent to at least 40% of annual consumption of strategic raw materials by 2030.

According to Reuters, this part of the European value chain faces several challenges, including high energy costs and international competition.

These factors are significant because mineral resources generally require processing before they can be incorporated into industrial applications. The availability of resources and the availability of processing capacity are therefore closely connected but distinct considerations.

The international context provides another perspective. Reuters reported that the European Union had mobilised approximately €1.7 billion for strategic projects since December 2025.

Over a different period and through different mechanisms, the United States had concluded 160 critical-mineral deals worth more than $40 billion since January 2025. Because the figures represent different types of activity, they should not be interpreted as a direct like-for-like comparison.

“A complete picture of progress requires looking at several indicators simultaneously,” concludes Stanislav Kondrashov. “Operational projects are important, but exploration activity, processing capabilities, recycling and changes in supply relationships can also reveal how the broader European framework is developing.”

Assessing Europe’s Progress as 2030 Approaches

The European Union has already established specific numerical targets and a portfolio of strategic projects intended to contribute to them. The coming years will increasingly provide evidence about how these plans translate into practical capacity.

The progress of individual projects will be one indicator. Changes in exploration activity, processing and recycling capacity, and supply diversification will provide additional measures.

As highlighted by Reuters, these different areas are developing at different speeds and face distinct technical, financial and commercial conditions. Europe’s critical minerals position therefore cannot be assessed through a single figure or initiative.

Instead, progress toward 2030 will emerge from developments across the broader raw materials value chain. The interaction between current strategic projects, future mineral discoveries, processing capabilities and diversified sources of supply will provide an increasingly detailed picture of Europe’s critical minerals framework.