COT-based Markets Weekly Overview for May 9 - 15

We make up a weekly medium-term trade list based on CFTC reports and technical analysis.

The overview provides a description of the technical condition of the market on the most popular financial instruments, as well as information on the large speculators’ actions according to the last COT reports and the previous period.

If you want to use CFTC reports in your trading practice, you should understand that for an objective assessment of the situation it’s not enough to have the data of the last report. The dynamic is more important, in other words, comparing the statistics of large speculators’ actions in the current period with the previous one, so we mention both values.

Key topics

• Trade list for the current week

• E-Mini S&P500 (ESM22)

• Dollar Index (DXY)

• Euro (EURUSD)

• Swiss Franc (USDCHF)

• British Pound (GBPUSD)

• Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

• WTI Crude Oil (CLM22)

• Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

• Gold (XAUUSD)

• Silver(XAGUSD)

• Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

• New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

• Russian Rouble (USDRUB)

• Conclusions

E-Mini S&P500 (ESM22)

The market remains in the bearish trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of May 3 – 6.

COT indicator reversed. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

Dollar Index (DXY)

The market remains in the uptrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of May 3 – 6.

COT indicator decreased but didn’t reverse. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are buying the dollar, hedgers are selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

Euro (EURUSD)

EURUSD currency pair remains in the bearish trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions (EURUSD) will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of May 3 – 6.

COT indicator decreases. Large speculators are selling Euro and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

Swiss Franc (USDCHF)

USDCHF currency pair remains in the uptrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions (USDCHF) will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of May 3 – 6.

COT indicator reversed. Large speculators are selling franc and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

British Pound (GBPUSD)

GBPUSD currency pair remains in the bearish trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions (GBPUSD) will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of May 3 – 6.

COT indicator decreases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are selling Pound and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

USDJPY currency pair remains in the uptrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions (USDJPY) will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of May 3 – 6.

COT indicator decreased but didn’t reverse. Large speculators are buying Yen and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

WTI Crude Oil (CLM22)

The resistance level was broken on the Daily timeframe on Thursday, the trend is bullish now and the impulse wave develops. A pullback buying opportunity will appear after the correction formation on the Daily timeframe. Long positions will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of April 29 – May 4.

COT net position indicator reversed. Large speculators are buying oil. Professionals’ opinion corresponds to the Daily trend direction.

Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

USDCAD currency pair remains in the uptrend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback buying opportunity was formed. Long positions (USDCAD) will remain relevant until the market is above the nearest support level on the Daily timeframe, the lows of May 3 – 6.

COT indicator reversed. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are selling the Canadian dollar and hedgers are buying and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

Gold (XAUUSD)

The market remains in the bearish trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of April 28 – May 2.

COT indicator decreases. Large speculators are selling gold and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

Silver (XAGUSD)

The market remains in the bearish trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of May 3 – 6.

COT indicator decreases. At the same time, CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are selling and hedgers are buying and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

AUDUSD currency pair remains in the bearish trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions (AUDUSD) will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of May 3 – 6.

COT net position indicator increases. Large speculators are buying and hedgers are selling. Professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)

NZDUSD currency pair remains in the bearish trend. The correction came to an end last week and the pullback selling opportunity was formed. Short positions (NZDUSD) will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of May 3 – 6.

COT indicator decreases. CFTC reports indicate that large speculators are selling and the professionals’ opinion corresponds to the market technical picture.

Russian Rouble (USDRUB)

USDRUB currency pair remains in the downtrend and the correction wave develops. A pullback selling opportunity will appear after the correction completion on the Daily timeframe. Short positions (USDRUB) will remain relevant until the market is below the nearest resistance level on the Daily timeframe, the highs of April 20 – 22.

COT indicator decreases. Large speculators are selling rouble and the professionals’ opinion doesn’t correspond to the Daily trend direction and it makes sense to reduce the position size when an entry point appears in the trend direction.

Conclusions

In terms of medium-term trading, financial instruments with the correction close to completion on the Daily timeframe and with potentially the most promising risk-reward ratio are AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD and gold.

In the near future, USDRUB can become noteworthy depending on the market correction depth.

Other financial instruments in the trade list may be also interesting, but in these markets pullback signals on the Daily timeframe are likely to occur no earlier than a week.

More information on the topic:

• The role of support and resistance levels in the trading plan

• Trading tactics. Breakout trading and pullback trading

• How to use CFTC reports in trading. General concepts

• How to use CFTC reports in trading. The logic of large speculators

Good luck in trading!