The Suicidal Incompetence of Russia's Tank Army

Military circles have long known Russia’s army was overrated.

But this invasion has exposed them well beyond those assumptions.

To understand how Ukraine will win, you must first understand Russia’s obsession with tanks — and why they are suicidally incompetent.

It starts with the cold war philosophy

The Soviet doctrine has two main gears for military strategy:

Overwhelming firepower and force.

Entrenched warfare.

In Crimea, you saw #1: Helicopters and tanks rolled over the border unannounced. Unsuspecting citizens were caught off guard and didn’t fight back.

Entrenched warfare (#2) was born in Russia’s success in the World War II. They allowed Nazi Germany to overextend and surrounded them — as they will soon do with Kyiv.

But it won’t work.

This strategy, like #1, requires many many tanks. And so for decades, Russia has doubled and tripled down tank purchases.

Here’s the problem: Anti-tank weaponry wasn’t nearly as sophisticated as it is today. It was less mobile and destructive. There were no drones available.

But this is only the beginning of the problems.

Where things are falling apart in Ukraine

Tank suppliers in Russia are members of the oligarchy.

They secure unending deals to manufacture equipment. Because of this corruption, the bid process isn’t as competitive as it is in the US.

Even Russia’s newer tank models aren’t nearly as effective as their modern counterparts.

Many of the tanks you see are old models and poorly maintained.

Putin and his cronies live in a bubble of their own making and now they’re paying for it.

Their tank strategy is even worse

Russian soldiers are treating tanks as a solution rather than a tool.

Tanks are highly effective when used in coordination with air and infantry support — and with supplies set up nearby (tanks only get ~1 mile per gallon).

The infantry will screen a perimeter against anti-tank soldiers lurking nearby.

This anti-air artillery shouldn’t usually be getting destroyed by drones. But, inexplicably, they are being crushed by the things they are supposed to destroy.

The cardinal sin of Russia’s tanks

They are slowly approaching single file towards heavily armed and ready cities. It happened yesterday outside of Kyiv.

The tanks were fully visible and in range of Ukrainian artillery.

The tanks bunched up like morons.

They started taking mortar and explosive rounds — which caused splash damage to hit multiple tanks.

They were this close to being completely annihilated.

Death for tank crews is not pleasant. If you’re lucky it’s instant death. Otherwise, you’ll be burned alive.

I repeat, alone.

In a city of armed civilians that hate you. Shortly after this, it was hit by an RPG, and kept moving — but was on borrowed time.

Russia is getting the basics wrong

They are running out of fuel and their communication is terrible.

They invaded during a wet month, with snow melting, causing the wheat fields to swallow their equipment and vehicles. Morale is horrible.

Russia has only taken the outskirts of the country and already seems stretched thin. Many of the maps you see are fairly misrepresentative of how much success they’ve had.

Russia is surely a regional power — but far from the superpower it once was.

And certainly nowhere near what Putin advertised.

Tanks are draining Putin's resources

Tanks cost $2 to $15 million each (which is cheap compared to newer models). Meanwhile, a javelin costs $178K. Each extra missile is $70K and they rarely fail to destroy the tank. They have a range of above 4000 meters.

A small part of me feels bad for the first row of Russian tanks that will roll into Kyiv. They have to know they will all die.

But, hey, don’t invade innocent territories and bomb maternity wards.

Yes, tanks are good for entrenched warfare. If they surround Kyiv, they could effectively bombard it from range. But they are clearly languishing and struggling at every corner.

The problem is that Russia is already so heavily invested in tanks. Upgrading your military isn’t cheap and their economy hasn’t facilitated those changes.

Russia’s military operates with intimidation as a key weapon. Tanks are most useful when civilians fear them.

They don’t.

A modern war requires excellent coordination. This is not an era where you can brute force your way into cities as you could in World War II.

Putin has fought all of his wars with overwhelming force and has not had the experience of fighting well-armed and informed civilians in a modern nation.

Additionally, US Intelligence is severely undermining Putin’s invasion. They announced that Russia would invade two weeks in advance and continue to feed Ukraine Tier 1 intelligence. They completely blew Putin’s informational cover.

Conversely, Russia’s troops are communicating on unsecured lines (and sometimes with Ukrainian cell service — with their calls in full view for listening).

The exploding, abandoned, and out-of-fuel tanks are merely a symptom of a dysfunctional and corrupt military organization.

They blew their budget on crappy tanks and deployed even crappier strategies.

The great irony is that Russia’s tanks were originally seen as a tool to protect them from invasion.