Glory to Ukraine

Grifters who are supposedly policy geniuses (and ones who are obviously not) advised Ukraine to try to negotiate or just outright surrender when Russia invaded. Ukrainians did not take this advice because they understood they were in an existential battle for their very existence as a people. There was no point negotiating with Russia because Russia is a bad faith actor who could not be trusted.

Now we are seeing Ukraine's perseverance pay off. After a summer of grinding attrition Ukraine has gone on the offensive. I'm not a battlefield analysist, but some of the resulting headlines have read Ukraine Pulled Off a Masterstroke and It’s Time to Prepare for a Ukrainian Victory

Now recall that before the war military expects were comfortable in declaring "The Russian armed forces are the unquestioned second strongest military power in the world." So how did they perform so badly against Ukraine, a country not on anyone's radar as a powerful force. Well there's not a simple answer. The experts making their calculations based off all the tanks and artillery pieces held by Russia didn't put much consideration into how corruption had hollowed out the army. I'd like to focus here on a factor certainly not considered by Russian generals before the war:

People fighting for their freedom will have an advantage over an army of slaves.

Let's break that down. The first part, "people fighting for their freedom" was completely missed by Russia because they believed their own hype. They thought Ukraine was run by Nazis and that their troops would be greeted as liberators. So cynical about free elections that they could not understand that Ukraine's were real.

Moreover, they did not understand the nature of their own army. The fact that Russian troops engaged in so much looting was not incidental. Modern soldiers don't really have time for looting, they're too busy doing actual soldiering, particularly focused on staying alive in a warzone. A professional soldier isn't interested in making off with a used washing machine. Russia's army isn't like that. They are men who took an extremely poorly paid and dangerous position out of desperation. The military's goals, the survival of their comrades... these things aren't as interesting as the possibility of getting a new TV. Higher ups allow it because they want to steal as well. And in case you think this is not a serious problem for an army, consider this:

I'm not saying everyone in Russia is a slave. Putin's regime is still calling this a "special military operation" because they don't want the accompanying draft that would come with declaring it a war.

Russia is a country that is well suited for dictators. It lacks a history of democratic norms. Ethnic Russians are largely united in the subjection of the other ethnicities. Importantly, there ample natural resources that can be extracted to fund imperial rule with little input from the populace. Though this formula can be undone if Europe breaks its dependance on Russian gas, which is now a possibility.

Russia can never be a normal country. It needs to go. As Ukraine's performance has improved chatter of Putin being doomed has increased. Yet we should not just expect this to naturally happen. Rumors of a coup or failing health have surrounded Putin since the start of the war. He will not go quietly. Even if he was removed, Russia wouldn't suddenly become a democracy.

Russia still has the ability to kill scores of Ukrainian civilians. The best thing America can do is give Ukraine all the arms it wants. Detractors who doubt the usefulness of giving such aid have been shown to be ridiculously wrong.

I want to close out with this hopeful image of the resilience of Ukraine in the face of Russian terrorism.

Down with the empire. Slava Ukraini.