After The Election

First off, congratulations to Joe Biden on his election win. It was a nail biting week to be sure. I don’t think there were many people who expected it to be that close, certainly not after the last four years.

What concerns me most is what comes next, and I am certainly not alone in this. Now, I am not referring to the possibility that Trump will try to hang on to power, calling the election a sham. I have already written about that. No, I am referring to what happens once Biden takes office and the implications that his presidency will have on the 2024 election.

This is because I do not see Trump as some sort of anomaly. I see him as an inevitability. 40 years of neo-liberal economics have essentially destroyed the economic landscape within the USA (and also here in Canada), leaving most of the middle class struggling to get by. Many middle class families are only one or two paychecks away from financial ruin. It is estimated that, over the last 40 years, 70 Trillion dollars has been absorbed from the middle class by the wealthy.

Those 40 years have seen the situation get worse under Republicans and remain unchanged under Democrats.

The problem is, both the Democrats and the Republicans continue to court the same demographic. Both parties, of course, have their own loyal party followers. Then there are the swing voters. These are mostly white, middle class people who switch back and forth between parties depending on which candidate they feel will best serve their interests. In every election, these are the people that both parties fight over. The Republicans tell them that it’s the Democrats who are responsible for their lot in life, while the Democrats blame it on the Republicans. All the while, nothing changes and the machine grinds merrily on.

It’s no wonder then that so many of these voters were charmed by Trump in 2016. He was very good at telling them exactly what they wanted to hear. He played to their fears, fears of the establishment, of criminals (read POC), etc.

Now we come to Joe Biden. During the election, he too worked very hard to win these voters back to the Democrats. He gave speeches directed at their concerns, he visited their neighborhoods.. He promised to look after them.

Here’s why I see a problem with this strategy for the Democrats. In order to keep his appeal with this group in the next election, he is going to have to stay close to the middle of the road. No big changes, The lives of the middle class will continue on, with a few minor changes, as it has for the last 40 years. Their lives will not significantly improve.

The problem is, the demographics of the United States are changing. In the 2020 election, despite record turnout, over 30% of voters just stayed home. In most elections, it comes closer to 40%. These people represent the forgotten, the disenfranchised. They are comprised of the poor, minorities, and the young. They are almost universally progressive. They stand for change, change that alarms the swing voters. As a result, the Democrats ignore them, marginalize them and keep them at bay. As a result, they refuse to vote for either party. On election day, they just stay home.

The reason so many did turn out for this election was because four more years of Trump scares them. They see hid divisiveness, his callousness and they want no more of it. Unfortunately, many of them have little faith in Joe Biden either. They see him simply as the lesser of two evils. So, they held their noses and voted Biden into office. In other words, Joe Biden did not win this election, Trump lost it.

If the Democrats truly wish to break the cycle, they must break with the conservative/centrist dichotomy that has dominated the political scene for the last 40 years. Those 40% of voters who stay at home are who the democrats need to court. Especially the youth vote. Voters under 30 are now the largest demographic in the US. They also make up the majority of those who do not vote. Why should they, when no one listens to their concerns. To do this, the Democrats need to start taking on progressive policies. They need to shift the tax burden back to the wealthy and corporations. They need to take concrete action on climate change, rather than simply paying it lip service. There need to be improvements to the rights of workers. Real wages need to go up. There needs to be substantial improvements to the social safety net, most particularly when it comes to health care. I could go on indefinitely.

Of course, those swing voters will not like it at first. The Republicans will spew dire warnings of socialism, stoking the middle class fears of higher taxes. However, once the middle class voters realize that their taxes will actually go down as the wealthy assume more of the burden, those fears will quickly evaporate. They will come back to the democrats in droves.

On the other hand, if Biden maintains the status quo, if the middle class does not see any relief, I can guarantee that those same voters will shift quickly back to the Republican camp. The consequences of such a shift could be even more devastating than the last four years have been. If Trump is truly the inevitable reaction to 40 years of trickle-down economics, 4 more years of the status quo could see Trump make a comeback in 2024. Or, even worse, a reactionary public could elect someone that is more destructive and polarizing.