Tariffs, Conflict, and Uncertainty: Ohio Businesses Bear the Cost of Trump’s Economic Policies

For Doug Rende, running an aluminum products manufacturing business in North Jackson, Ohio, the math has become painfully simple. Since Donald Trump returned to the presidency in January 2025, tariffs on aluminum have risen in stages from 10% during his first term to 25%, and then to 50% last year. The result? This year alone, his company, Shapes Unlimited, faces additional costs of US$4.5 million to US$5 million. “Frustrating would be one word,” Rende told AFP. And it is not just the expense; it is the uncertainty, the shifting rules, and a growing sense that the checks and balances of government are falling away. “We’re sensing a lack of trust not only the administration but in the governmental process, the role of Congress to rein in executive power,” he said. As midterm elections approach, stories like his are echoing across the industrial heartland, reshaping how voters see trade, leadership, and America’s place in the world.

Tariffs That Keep Rising

Trump has wielded executive authority to impose sweeping tariffs across sectors such as aluminum, steel, and automobiles, as well as on a range of goods from different nations. The logic has been to protect domestic industry, and for some producers, that has indeed meant fewer foreign competitors. But for other manufacturers who rely on imported materials or who sell abroad, the policies have become a crushing burden. Rende cannot simply pass every increase along to customers. “There’s only so much that the end consumer is willing to eat,” he explained. “So, we absorb a healthy portion.” To cope, he has paused hiring and accelerated investment in automation robotics that can reduce labour costs, but which also means fewer new jobs in the community.

War in the Middle East Makes It Harder

Just as businesses were adapting to new trade barriers, a fresh shock arrived: the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran. Fuel prices surged, and shipping routes grew more dangerous and expensive. For Rende, that translates into surcharges of up to US$6,500 per container of incoming goods. Delays lengthened, costs climbed, and supply chains that had only recently stabilized began to tangle again. These pressures are not isolated they compound. Higher material costs meet higher transport costs, squeezing margins from both sides.

Canada: The Neighbourhood Trade Fray

The rupture with Canada has added another layer of difficulty. After negotiations collapsed in August, both sides imposed retaliatory tariffs. For Ohio where one‑third of all exports head to Canada, making it the state’s largest foreign market, the impact is direct and personal. Sam Miller, who manufactures kitchen and bathroom fixtures in Warren, Ohio, had planned to open a distribution facility north of the border this year. Progress has stalled. “It is particularly straining on both us and our customers,” he said. Goods that cross the border multiple times during production, common in integrated North American supply chains are hit repeatedly, inflating costs at every stage. Miller has faced a double burden: paying tariffs on materials from Asia while finding his own exports face new barriers in Canada. Even after the Supreme Court struck down many earlier duties and he received refunds, the president reinstated them, leaving businesses in a cycle of adjustment and reversal.

From Boardrooms to Ballots

These struggles are not merely economic they are becoming political. Democrats hope to flip control of the House and Senate in November’s elections, framing trade policy as a liability rather than a victory. Miller, the Warren manufacturer, put it plainly: “I do think that there will be a shift away from Republican views.” Guy Coviello, president of the Youngstown Warren Regional Chamber, which represents roughly 3,000 businesses, describes the overall impact as negative even if some firms benefit. Some have lost customers; others have downsized. He notes that while tariffs may make sense for truly critical domestic industries, defence, and medical supplies they are often applied broadly, hitting products that are simply not made in the United States at all. With no new aluminum smelters coming online, domestic supply cannot meet demand, meaning higher tariffs only raise prices without creating viable alternatives.

The Human Cost of Policy

In the end, this is a story of ordinary businesses trying to plan, invest, and grow amid constant change. Rende and Miller are not ideological critics; they are operators on factory floors, watching machines run, payrolls go out, and orders come in. What they seek is predictability: rules that stay in place long enough to build strategies around, trade relationships that stay open, and a governmental process that feels steady and shared. For now, they are absorbing costs, pausing plans, and hoping the next election brings clarity or, at the very least, calm.