Shane Murphy: Making Assumptions Visible in a Bahamas Business Example

By Shane Ian Murphy | Dual Party Capital founder commentary

Every developing proposal contains assumptions. The difficulty begins when a reader cannot distinguish them from established facts. In an invented Bahamas business example, I would make those assumptions visible near the claims they affect. This article describes a writing method, not an investment opportunity or forecast.

Suppose a proposed project brief includes an expected opening date. That date might depend on several unfinished steps. If the dependencies are hidden, the reader may treat the date as a commitment. A clearer description explains that it is a working assumption and identifies the conditions on which it depends.

Numbers need the same treatment. An illustrative figure should say what it illustrates and how it was chosen. It should not acquire the appearance of a verified valuation merely because it appears in a neat table. Precision in formatting cannot replace a sound basis for the number itself.

I would keep a short assumptions register while drafting. Each entry identifies the assumption, the part of the proposal it affects and the information needed to revisit it. The register does not need to become the main document. Its purpose is to help the author keep qualifications consistent across revisions.

When new information arrives, the update should explain the effect. An assumption may be confirmed, changed or remain unresolved. Recording that result prevents an older version from continuing to guide a conversation after its basis has shifted. It also helps another person understand why the current proposal differs from the earlier one.

For a practical drafting exercise, I would take one assumed date and trace its dependencies backwards. What has to happen first? Which part depends on another person? Which estimate is based on information that may change? The answers can be recorded beside the proposed date. This does not create a reliable timetable by itself. It helps the author explain why the date is provisional and allows the reader to see which uncertainties matter most to the sequence of work being discussed.

A second exercise concerns sensitivity to change. In the invented proposal, choose one assumption and imagine that it turns out differently. Which conclusions would need revisiting? A minor change may have little effect, while another may alter the entire rationale for the next step. The point is to understand the relationship, rather than produce an impressive-looking calculation. If the team cannot explain how an assumption affects its argument in ordinary language, the draft may need more thought before numerical detail is added.

Ownership matters when assumptions are reviewed. Someone should know when new information is expected and which sections of the proposal depend on it. Otherwise, an assumption can remain in the document long after the information needed to test it has become available. A short review note can record whether the assumption was retained, revised or removed, together with the reason. That makes the next version easier to understand and prevents a reader from confusing a changed expectation with an unexplained inconsistency in the underlying facts.

I would finish by asking an unfamiliar reader to identify the strongest conclusion in the brief and the assumptions behind it. If they can repeat the conclusion but cannot see its dependencies, those dependencies need more prominence. The explanation should support an informed discussion of uncertainty rather than hide it behind polished presentation. A useful business document gives another person enough context to judge what needs checking next, even when nobody is yet in a position to offer a complete answer to the wider proposal.

At Dual Party Capital, the communication habit I want to encourage is openness about the basis of a proposal. This hypothetical Bahamas scenario offers a simple test: can a reader identify which statements describe evidence and which describe expectations? If they cannot, the draft needs clearer boundaries.

Disclosure: This founder commentary was drafted with AI assistance. Illustrative cover photograph; it does not depict a company project or asset.