Risk Premium of Truth

Oil prices extended gains on Tuesday as the risk of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East grew, with Brent crude climbing to US$97.34 a barrel. Traders are building a "risk premium" into prices, anticipating that supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz will persist through 2026 and into 2027. This economic reality mirrors the emotional landscape of my own healing: when you live in a state of internal conflict, every action carries a higher cost. Every interaction is priced with the fear of exposure. Every moment of peace is temporary, shadowed by the threat of retaliation from your own past.

For years, I lived with a high "risk premium." I paid extra for everything: extra energy to maintain lies, extra caution to avoid triggers, extra distance to keep people from seeing the cracks. My emotional oil was expensive because the supply lines were constantly under threat. I was always waiting for the next strike, the next revelation, the next collapse. And like the market, I priced this instability into my daily life. I became cautious. I became defensive. I became expensive to love.

Iran’s warning that energy infrastructure is vulnerable resonates deeply. My own "energy infrastructure," my trust, my openness, and my capacity for joy has been vulnerable to attack. Not from external enemies, but from my own unresolved trauma. The "tit-for-tat strikes" between my desire for connection and my fear of intimacy have left my internal Gulf in a state of constant tension. I have struck my own tankers. I have damaged my own hubs. And now, I am paying the price in elevated costs.

Daniel Hynes of ANZ notes that Persian Gulf supply may remain constrained through the rest of 2026. Similarly, my capacity for easy, unburdened happiness may remain constrained for some time. Healing is not a quick fix. It is a prolonged standoff. It is a series of calibrated actions, therapy sessions, difficult conversations, and moments of vulnerability that slowly chip away at the blockade. We don’t expect a full return to "pre-war throughput" to the innocence of childhood or the ease of ignorance until late Q1 or early Q2 of my new life. And that is okay. Constraints force efficiency. They force innovation. They force us to find new ways to power our lives.

Goldman Sachs has raised its price forecasts, reflecting the assumption that disruptions will continue. I have raised my own "forecasts" for what I need to survive. I no longer expect cheap grace. I no longer expect easy forgiveness. I expect to pay for my truth. I expect to work for my peace. And I am willing to pay the price. Because the alternative of living in the dark, under the threat of constant disruption, is far more expensive in the long run.

Ed Meir of Marex states that as long as the war continues, prices will remain elevated. The war in my head is not over. The issues of my abuse, my bullying, my arrogance, and my complicity have yet to be fully addressed. So yes, the cost remains high. I still feel the anxiety. I still feel the guilt. I still feel the fear.

But I am no longer trying to lower the price by hiding the conflict. I am accepting the premium as the cost of doing business with myself. I am acknowledging that until the diplomatic breakthrough of total self-acceptance arrives, I will be operating in a high-cost environment. And that is a fair trade.

Because unlike oil, which is a finite resource, my truth is renewable. My integrity is sustainable. My resilience is infinite. So let the prices stay high. Let the risk premium remain. I will pay it. Because I am finally buying something real.