Global poverty due to Corona Virus

To predict poverty earlier, we use the GEPEP forecast for January 2021. Finally, in a country without epidemics, we have used the GEPEP growth forecast for January 2020. According to the April 2020 growth forecast of $ 1.90 per day as the poverty line, we estimate that 62 million people will fall into extreme poverty by 2020 when South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa contribute two-fifths. In October 2020, we estimated that by 2020, between 88 million and 115 million people worldwide would be drawn into this category according to the June global economic growth forecast.

The expected increase in global poverty caused by the epidemic is concentrated in South Asia with an increase of 78 million and in sub-Saharan Africa 40 million; it is the poorest region in the world. Individual incomes in many developing and developing countries will decline by 2020, putting millions in poverty. Another 49.4 million people in Africa will live in coronavirus poverty, up from 1.14 billion people by 2020.

The World Bank predicts that the number of people living in extreme poverty will increase this year by 70 million to 100 million and will remain so for several years, as the coronavirus's economic decline is likely to continue in countries such as Nigeria and India, where the world's poorest people live. The number of people living at the World Bank rates below $ 3.20 per day is also expected to increase from 170 million to 220 million. Another 209 million people are expected to live in poverty, or about 550, many in East Asia and the Pacific and a few in sub-Saharan Africa.

UNESCO estimates that 23.8 million children, youth, and young people by 2020 are at risk of never returning to nursing homes, schools, and universities in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, most of whom live there.

The analysis concludes that the epidemic will increase the number of people living in poverty by 150 million or 20% above the current line of poverty. It is estimated that the COVID 19 epidemic will increase poverty by 88 million more than basic levels and 93 million below the 2020 declining rates.

The increase in extreme poverty marks the first complete increase in the world's population since 1999 and is the first in terms of the number of people living in poverty since 1990. - increased by 60% (from $ 4.46 million per day with no problem to $ 7 million per day).

The epidemic is exacerbated by the global economic crisis: for the first time in this century, the number of people living in poverty is increasing worldwide. The epidemic threatens to lift 115 million people into poverty by 2020. Countries with high levels of poverty are at risk of increasing poverty as a result of COVID-19, where 82% of young people are placed in low-income countries.

With the World Bank's warning of an unprecedented increase in poverty this year and renewed debt reduction announcements, experts warn that a growing problem in many areas - from education to work - could be felt in the years to come. Global poverty decreased by an estimated 4.9 million per year between 2011 and 2019, while the number of the world's poorest people dropped from 1.10 billion to 691 million over the period. The epidemic has increased the number of poor by 131 million and reversed progress in reducing poverty by several years, with the poverty rate expected to increase from 9.0% in 2019 to 10.4% by 2020.

Before COVID-19, the only poverty-related increase in global poverty over the past three decades was the Asian financial crisis, which brought the world's largest poverty rate from 18 million in 1997 to 47 million in 1998.

Economic growth has reduced global poverty, despite government inefficiency, widespread inequality, and poor access to social services. Twenty milestones in reducing extreme poverty and eliminating one of the Sustainable Development Goals have been transformed into a combination of the effects of the COVID 19 epidemic, increasing climate catastrophe, and growing debt.

The World Bank has warned that the coronavirus epidemic and the accompanying recession could lead 150 million people to extreme poverty by the end of 2021, with global poverty for the first time in 20 years. The 2020 Poverty, Participation, and Prosperity report that COVID-19 is likely to push between 88 million and 115 million people worldwide into "extreme poverty" - living at $ 1.90 a day (see our related blog) in 2020.

In the analysis of the new situation presented in this paper, we estimate that another 150 million people will fall into extreme poverty (estimated by PPP below or below 190% of the poverty line by 2020) - a 20% increase from pre-epidemic levels without adequate responses from in poor countries. The World Bank's paper this summer summarizes these values and assesses their impact on the goals of the United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, which will lead to global poverty.

COVID's basic stance in terms of current mortality rates and the International Fund's latest growth forecasts means that 44 million people will live in extreme poverty by 2030 than in countries prone to pre-epidemic poverty. Figure 2 provides international estimates of the deepest and most sustainable impacts of COVID-19 poverty. Countries with the highest levels of poverty are Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo, where the poverty rates by 2030 will exceed those of 2020 and African countries listed in Figure 2. Figure 2 calls for greater efforts to eliminate the impact of COVID on poor families by state and local authorities and auxiliary characters.