Which Movie will win the 2020 Best Picture Oscar?

Film awards season is well underway, and with that comes the inevitable Oscars ceremony, the grand finale to a months' worth of speeches, trophies, and a bumbling MC (unless it's Ricky Gervais). At the end of the road will be the ultimate prize that any North American film hopes to accomplish; the Academy Award for Best Picture. There are nine movies gunning for the accolade, but only one will be crowned the winner, and Twitter will explode over whichever one wins.

However, each movie is nominated for their own fair share of awards other than the grand title. Some for writing and directing, others for acting, and some have already won awards for those categories. With those factors thrown into the mix, it's time to determine which movie stands the best chance to nab the top spot.

Ford v. Ferrari

The Stakes: James Mangold is the latest filmmaker whose name seems to be popping up more and more at awards show, thanks to his incredible work on Logan and this tale of underdogs and racing. This movie has the least amount of nominations among the other nine films, with the other three being in Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, and Film Editing.

Why it WILL win: Everybody loves an underdog story, and what better surprise than seeing the movie dragging behind the rest take the Oscar. Seeing as this is the only award Mangold is nominated for, it would be a pleasant surprise and a win for the director, sort of a make up for lack of Best Director nomination and for Logan receiving very little attention two years ago.

Why it WON'T win: If one has to be honest, Ford v. Ferrari would not make the cut if there were only five Best Picture slots. It may win a couple of its technical awards, but that's about it, meaning no gold for Mangold. There were some far better films that came out in 2019, and this underdog story may find itself coming in last across the finish line.

The Irishman

The Stakes: Martin Scorsese gathers Robert DeNiro, Al Pacino, and Joe Pesci for what could mark the end of an era as the last great gangster movie. One of three films to be nominated in 10 categories, including Best Director for Scorsese and Best Supporting Actor noms for Pacino and Pesci, it's a last hurrah for a group of modern film legends before one of them inevitably passes.

Why it WILL win: As previously mentioned, the gangster genre is becoming all but extinct in today's movie industry. As the next generation comes forth raised on superheroes and blockbusters, these types of films could fade into history before long. With that in mind, there's no better way to honour it with a final congratulations. Not to mention, it's 210 minutes long, and the Academy tends to be partial towards films of extraordinary length.

Why it WON'T win: Scorsese has made better movies, and already has a Best Picture win under his belt, albeit for The Departed, which many view as penance for his loss on GoodFellas. It also happens to be one of two movies on the list that is owned by a streaming service, and the awards circuit has yet to accept movies from that format as bonafide films.

Jojo Rabbit

The Stakes: Taika Watiti's satire of Hitler has a solid six nominations, and many have him as a lock for Best Adapted Screenplay. It's not a large but not small number of nominations, enough to gain traction and stand out but doesn't call too much attention. The only other Big Five nomination for this movie is Scarlett Johansson's Best Supporting Actress, which is in a tight race of its own.

Why it WILL win: Advertised as an "anti-hate satire" in a time where Hollywood seems to be sprinkling more and more social messaging into their movies, there's very little reason why this won't cater to progressive voters. Moreso, this film seems to be reminiscent of the Charlie Chaplin movie, The Great Dictator, which came out eighty years ago and was also nominated for Best Picture. This time around, perhaps a mockery of Hitler could win the prize.

Why it WON'T win: It's not the only movie on the ballot that takes place during a World War, and the other one has already won a few film of the year awards. Also, at the time of writing, it is currently the lowest grossing film of the lot. The Academy has a strange relationship with the box office; they want to award a film that's not making a billion, but they don't want to give it to a movie people aren't going to see. Needless to say, while Watiti will get his award for his script, he'll lose out on the big prize.

Joker

The Stakes: The movie with a staggering 11 nominations, the most out of all of this year's Best Picture hopefuls, including Best Director for Todd Phillips. Although, he'll most likely lose out on that, thanks to a pretty stacked deck of competitors. Joaquin Phoenix has been scooping up Best Actor awards left, right, and center, so he's at the very least guaranteed another one, and it's expected the film will pick up a Best Original Score and maybe Best Costume Design and Best Makeup and Hairstyling.

Why it WILL win: Comic book movies have spent the last decade evolving and shifting to avoid becoming stagnant, with Logan proving not every superhero movie has to have save-the-world stakes and Black Panther breaking the glass ceiling and giving fans hope that a comic book movie could nab the top prize. It will be ages before a movie like Joker comes around again, provided the market doesn't get flooded with them. A Best Picture win will solidify that the genre can tell compelling character studies too, and not just summer blockbuster fuel.

Why it WON'T win: About a week before the movie was released to the public, the movie was hit with a slew of mixed to negative reviews (which read more like hit pieces), causing its Rotten Tomatoes score to drop from 85% to 69% and for the film to lose its "certified fresh" rating, making it the lowest rated film of the lot. In spite of the "controversy", there's still one other aspect that prevents the movie from winning the big trophy; it's too successful. At the time of writing, it has made $1.070 billion, more than Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, and should it earn a few million more, it will surpass Toy Story 4 as the highest grossing 2019 film nominated for an Oscar. Not to mention the high nomination count doesn't help its chances, the Academy likes to award the best, but not too much.

Little Women

The Stakes: Greta Gerwig's second directorial feature is the seventh adaptation of the 1868 novel and the fourth to appear at the Academy Awards, but it's the first since the 1933 version to be up for Best Picture. Despite not being nominated for Best Director, Greta Gerwig is another filmmaker whose movies will appear more and more at award shows, and Saoirse Roman and Florence Pugh are posed to be strong contenders against Scarlett Johansson's double nomination in the Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress categories, respectively.

Why it WILL win: At a staggering seven adaptations, it's only a matter of time before one of them wins the top prize from the Academy. It has the median number of nominations and is doing fairly well at the box office, prompting an advantage over some of its competition, plus it will please those who were disappointed at Gerwig getting snubbed.

Why it WON'T win: A movie's chances of winning drop drastically when it doesn't nab a Best Director nomination. Although there are plenty of movies that have won without it, that tends to happen only once in a while. With Green Book being the latest to break the pattern, it's gonna be another few years into the decade before it happens again.

Marriage Story

The Stakes: At 6 nominations, including Best Actor for Adam Driver, Best Actress for Scarlett Johansson, and a Best Original Score for Andy Newman (yes, Pixar's Andy Newman) it's the second Netflix film to be running in this year's ceremony. Noah Baumbach also returns for a Best Original Screenplay nom, fourteen years after The Squid and the Whale, and it seems as if his persistence might pay off.

Why it WILL win: Baumbach has been praised for his entire career, and it seems the Academy will want to recognize the talent that's been flying under their radar for so long. Not to mention it has the average number of nominees of this year's awards, making it a prime choice for the top accolade.

Why it WON'T win: The movie has a lot of the issues that some of the previous names on the list have; a limited box office, no Best Director nomination, and the fact it's a streaming service film. It's managed to find some popularity within the meme crowd, specifically, the argument scene where Driver punches the wall, so good news is, mainstream audiences will know more about Noah Baumbach.

1917

The Stakes: The second film on the list to be nominated in 10 categories, it's one that's uniting critics and audiences alike, with unanimous acclaim coming from every outlet. Other nominations include Best Director for Sam Mendes and Best Cinematography Roger Deakins, who they previously worked together on Skyfall.

Why it WILL win: World War movies tend to do well at the Oscars, and it just so happens to hitting the box office with a confident stride, already hitting $100 million domestically shortly after its wide release. The Academy has been accused in the past of being out of touch with what audiences are going to see, and this could be a turn of the tide in moviegoer-Academy voter relations.

Why it WON'T win: As mentioned above, this year's ballot is more in tune with what people are going to see, which will make it harder for the Academy to pick a winner that will satisfy everyone. Also, predictions from industry insiders tend to be wrong, as Boyhood, The Revenant, La La Land and Roma were considered shoe-ins for Best Picture in their respective years, only to lose out.

Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

The Stakes: Quentin Tarantino's ninth (and possibly final) movie is the last one here to be among the 10-nomination club, including Best Director for Tarantino, Best Actor for Leonardo DiCaprio and Best Supporting Actor for Brad Pitt. Tarantino is expected to win Best Original Screenplay, as he's won every time he was nominated, and Pitt is a favourite for his category.

Why it WILL win: Hollywood loves movies about Hollywood, and this movie is described as Tarantino's love letter to its Golden Age, and how a change in Sharon Tate's fate may have prevented its end. Plus, if this is Tarantino's final time directing, there's no better way to bow out than with a Best Picture trophy in his hand.

Why it WON'T win: It seems Hollywood isn't that obsessed with itself, because while it does award movies that talk about it, they also lose out on Best Picture, just to keep their own ego in check. Adding on to that, it's long, but not three hours long, which is the sweet spot for a sweeping epic at the Academy. If nothing else, then it's release date is a determining factor, most Oscarbait movies come out in the last three months of the year, and this movie came out in July.

Parasite

The Stakes: The South Korean dark comedy/thriller has been making huge waves, and is another crowd favourite. It's other nominations include, but aren't limited to, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and Best International Feature Film, all of which will go to Bong Joon-Ho.

Why it WILL win: Representation has become a big deal in the movie business, but it's clear that the movement behind it prefers progressiveness to quality. Should this film win, it could encourage audiences to watch movies from other countries, eliminating the need for Hollywood to enforce diversity quotas.

Why it WON'T win: Non-English language films stand very little chance at winning the top prize, even if they are the best of the bunch. It's not unfair to assume that an awards ceremony that's predominantly English will give their highest accolade to an English language film. While Joon-Ho may lose out this time, he's sure to gain traction in North America in the months and years that follow.

The Academy Awards are a tricky creature, they're either the easiest thing in the world to predict, or they go completely off the rails with their winners. When all is said and done, the credits roll, the celebrities file out of the venue, and the dust settles on Twitter after all the hashtags and retweets, the movie that walks away with Best Picture will define the transition from the 2010s to the 2020s.