The Next Black Swan Event: Geomagnetic (Solar) Superstorms

Covid-19 caught the world by surprise, as prevention methods failed massively to reduce the spread of the pandemic.

In early centuries, humanity experienced an extensive record of population eradication from the spread of various illnesses and viruses. Black Death (the bubonic plague between 1346–1353) annihilated half the population of the European continent. It took two hundred years for Europe to regain its previous population levels.

The term “Black Swan” describes unpredictable events with historical implications for societies, economies, and civilizations.

Wall Street traders immediately characterized the Covid-19 pandemic as a Black Swan event since governments reacted in panic, lockdowns went into effect, streets emptied, and chaotic moments occurred, resembling scenes from TV series like “The Walking Dead”.

Markets crashed, oil futures (US) traded even at a negative price, and Central Banks printed and poured enormous amounts of money into the economy creating inflation concerns (high inflation arrived two years later).

Apocalyptic scenes emerged as a result of massive panic and unorganized response by every managing party involved.

We can distinguish an event as “Black Swan” in retrospect. Although with Covid, we noticed effects with the potential to crash economies. Still, this “Black Swan” event was not similar in magnitude to the bubonic plague and its consequences on Europe’s population in the 14th century.

Another real “Black Swan” event could be close, though. According to scientists collecting data and analyzing Sun’s behavior for decades, it seems highly possible that a Solar Shock could be near, an occurrence that can induce an Internet Apocalypse.

CME Threat — Coronal Mass Ejection

A geomagnetic or solar storm is an event that wasn’t noticed by our pre-electricity civilization since it affects telecommunication networks and technology based on electrical circuits.

Earth’s magnetic field absorbs most of the Sun’s rays when solar activity is at normal levels, but at times an increased plasma ejection occurs. A coronal mass ejection (or CME) erupts from the Sun, bypassing the earth’s magnetic field and creating havoc on electronic systems.

Coronal mass ejections are frequent as NASA observes:

CMEs often occur along with solar flares (explosions on the Sun’s surface), but they can also occur spontaneously. The frequency of CMEs varies with the 11 year solar cycle. At solar minimum we observe about one a week. Near solar maximum we observe an average of two to three CMEs per day.

Source: NASA

Historic Solar Storm Events

Previous solar storms have had a tremendous effect on infrastructure and telecommunications.

We only recorded three previous occasions of an extreme solar storm bypassing the magnetic field that created problems for the planet's infrastructure.

Two events coincided and made us not think about the possible catastrophic outcome of a massive Solar Storm.

i) The Sun's activity is relatively stable for the last 100 years. We recorded the latest massive event in 1921 (100 years ago).

ii) We've experienced rapid technological growth since the 1920s, with our societies and economies established on telecommunication networks (internet, cell-phone infrastructure) and electricity.

Although, the technological wonder of our societies is in immediate danger.

While similar to earthquake prediction models there is a high chance of statistical failure, a Solar geomagnetic storm is an event that occurred at least three times in history.

Carrington Event 1859

In 1859 electricity infrastructure was limited, and the effect of a mass-scale geomagnetic storm was not noticeable to most of the earth's population.

A solar storm of this magnitude occurring today would cause widespread electrical disruptions, blackouts, and damage due to extended outages of the electrical grid.

-Wikipedia

A solar storm of similar magnitude came close to striking Earth in 2012 (source).

Geomagnetic Storm of May 1921

This storm hit the Earth for 3-days in 1921 (source). Electricity infrastructure was undeveloped in most of the world in the 1920s, and while its effects were not devastating, still it damaged electricity production units, causing fires and disrupting telegraph communications.

A Cause For Concern

Source, Wikipedia, (By Daniel Wilkinson - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, )

Since 1921, we have reports of smaller-scale solar storms hitting Earth, although their magnitude wasn't less.

A study on the effects of a massive solar super-storm was presented at SIGCOMM 2021 convention, and according to scientists' findings, the planet is not secure against an event that repeats itself roughly every 100 years.

Scientists calculate the odds of such a storm hitting Earth in this decade between 1,6% - 12%. These odds increase vastly in the following decades, and according to the study, the planet's infrastructure is not secure.

Telecommunications can be disrupted irreparably for a long time and entire continents could be cut off from the internet. Effects of such a storm could last for multiple years, and the potential damage counted in trillions of dollars.

A solar super-storm similar to 1859 and 1921 will create vast problems and damage economies. There are ways to counter the destructive effect of such an event in telecommunications since fiber optics are not affected by a solar storm.

The internet and most communications today depend on the lengthy underwater intercontinental cables vulnerable if such an event occurs. Moreover, satellites will probably be affected as well, according to this study. The result to our infrastructure would be devastating.

In Conclusion

Pandemics like the bubonic plague or Covid are different events from a solar storm incident, but all can be considered Black Swan events.

Due to the “Black Death” pandemic of the 14th century, all progress was halted for decades (or even centuries) as humanity faced an existential threat.

The effects of a solar super-storm occurring today will be devastating in cost. Our living conditions depend on modern technology, and once communications are disrupted or even halted, there will be vast problems in the supply chain.

Currently, we are at the beginning of a new industrial revolution based on the digital world, the internet and cellular infrastructure, 5G networks, and satellite communications. We expect robotics and AI to jump-start improvements in productivity and efficiency and even more technologies that will improve living conditions and increase longevity.

We are already looking for abundant energy sources (like cold fusion) and new technologies that could enable interstellar travel and expansion in our solar system.

We find the need to safeguard our technological progress from possible threats or potential Black Swan events. Telecommunications are vital to the world economy today. A Solar storm that hits the earth roughly every 100 years could disrupt our economy, infrastructure, and societies.

Measures should be taken to replace weak infrastructure, cables, and power stations to counter the destructive effects of this cosmic phenomenon, which will probably reoccur.

References:

• Wikipedia: Black Swan Event
• LiveScience: Solar Storm - Internet Apocalypse
• Wikipedia: Coronal mass ejection
• NASA: Coronal Mass Ejections on the Sun
• Solar Superstorms: Planning for an Internet Apocalypse (PDF)

Cover Image from Wikipedia: By NASA Goddard Space Flight Center — Flickr: Magnificent CME Erupts on the Sun — August 31, CC BY 2.0, Source

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