NO SPACE LEFT IN EARTH ?

Currently, the global population is at an all-time high. We have grown from 1 billion in 1800 to 8.2 billion in 2024. In the last century, the population increased fourfold. This leads to questions about the future. Will there be mass migration? Overcrowding in urban areas? Will diseases and pollution rise? Are we facing chaos over essential resources like energy, water, and food? Will population growth jeopardize our lifestyle, or is this merely unfounded fear?

In the 1960s, population growth reached alarming levels. This sparked predictions of disaster. It was believed that poorer populations would overpopulate the developed world. Thus, the narrative of overpopulation took root. However, high birth rates are not enduring characteristics of certain cultures. They are part of a four-stage process known as demographic transition.

Most developed countries have completed this transition, while many others are in the process. In the 18th century, the entire world, including Europe, was in the first stage of this transition. By modern standards, Europe faced significant challenges. Living conditions were poor, with inadequate sanitation, nutrition, and healthcare. High birth rates led to high mortality rates, resulting in minimal population growth. Women typically had four to six children, with only two reaching adulthood.

The industrial revolution marked a major turning point. It transformed people from peasants to industrial workers. Mass production of goods improved availability and quality of life. Advances in science led to improvements in transportation, communication, and medicine. The role of women evolved, contributing to their empowerment and societal advancements.

Economic progress fostered a middle class and improved living standards. This initiated the second stage of the demographic transition. Enhanced food supply, hygiene, and medicine significantly reduced death rates, especially among young children. Consequently, the UK's population doubled between 1750 and 1850.

Historically, families had many children because survival rates were low. This changed, prompting a reduction in birth rates and slowing population growth. Eventually, birth and death rates stabilized, leading the UK into the fourth stage of demographic transition. This pattern is observable in numerous countries. Initially, there were high birth and death rates due to poor living conditions. Improved conditions resulted in fewer deaths and population growth surged. As death rates declined, so did birth rates, bringing population growth to a halt.

Despite lower birth rates, the global population continues to rise. This is due to the children born during the population boom of the 1970s and 1980s. They are now having children, contributing to a noticeable increase. However, they are having fewer children than the previous generation. Today, the average birth rate is 2.3 children, down from five four decades ago. As this generation ages and fertility continues to decline, the rate of population growth will further reduce.

In the West, there is often a lack of awareness regarding progress in other regions. Nonetheless, many countries have achieved the fourth stage. For instance, in 1971, an average woman in Bangladesh had seven children, with a 25% mortality rate before age five. By 2015, the mortality rate fell to 3.8%, and average births decreased to 2.2.

This trend is not an exception. It took developed nations approximately 80 years to reduce fertility rates significantly. Many countries are now catching up rapidly. For example, Malaysia and South Africa achieved substantial declines in just 34 years, while Bangladesh did so in 20 years. Iran accomplished this in just 10 years. These nations benefit from prior advancements and support, which accelerates their progress.

Thus, programs aimed at reducing child mortality and fostering development are crucial. Regardless of personal motivations—whether for humanitarian reasons or to limit refugee influx—the outcome is beneficial for all. The percentage of individuals living in extreme poverty is at its lowest level ever. Therefore, the future global population growth should not be viewed as a doomsday scenario. Rather, it represents a promise of progress.

Ultimately, population growth is expected to stabilize. The United Nations predicts that the 12th billionth person will likely never be born. As global development improves, the number of individuals with higher education will increase significantly. Formerly disadvantaged countries will transition to contributors in advancing development. More people will enhance our capacity to progress as a specie.