Looking ahead to 1.5 billion people in India.

In 1999, India's population surpassed one billion, and it is increasing by around 1.8% annually. The country's population is expected to exceed 1.5 billion in 2050 and reach above 1.6 billion before stabilising, according to the United Nations' "medium" prediction. 1,2 The projections' underlying presumptions can be questioned because mortality may not follow a predictable course and because fertility is undoubtedly declining and may even accelerate. However, there is still room for significant growth, and it is possible that by the middle of the next century, there will be 1.5 billion people on the planet.

How can India possible manage, one would ask? But in the last 50 years, India's population has roughly tripled. The question of whether the future will resemble the past may be more pertinent. Will it be more difficult to handle adding half a billion in the following 50 years than adding just over 650 million in the previous 50?

Methods

This article is based on background research for a three-year project that we have just begun with other colleagues to study population issues in India. In addition to consulting our earlier research and publications, we used electronic literature searches.

Is the growth sustainable?

India's population growth during the last five decades was accompanied with significant advancement. Despite a nearly doubling in actual numbers, poverty rates decreased from over 50% to just over 30% as living standards and life expectancy increased. 3 Over six children per couple were once the norm, but today only about 3.2 are. 4 Economies expanded and diversified.

Despite frequent food shortages and reliance on imports, food production more than kept up with population growth in India, which eventually achieved self-sufficiency. However, the environment in India deteriorated significantly during this time, so examining the relationships between population growth and natural resources is unavoidable when looking ahead.Concerns must also be expressed about how the quality of life will be affected, including how the enormous increases in the labour force will be employed, how the more children will be taught, how the elderly will be cared for, and what will happen to housing, amenities in cities, etc.

In general, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that India's population growth would have been slower and the amount of progress gained during the past 50 years would have been larger. But winning the debate is challenging. Numerous consequences of population growth are actually induced by other factors.

Considering the population and its age distribution as long-term underlying factors that affect the scope and makeup of demand for resources, goods, and services, as well as the labour supply, is probably the most sensible way to think about the population's function. Numerous factors, including technology, markets (or lack thereof), social structure and conditions, politics, and institutions, affect how demands are met and how useful additional labour is.

Health and education

Given the high rates of maternal death (570 per 100 000 live births in 19907) and the detrimental impacts of big families on health and nutrition, excessive fertility itself adds to mortality. 8 A slower population growth rate would make it simpler to increase per capita spending and boost quality. Population growth also dilutes health services and their infrastructure.

However, given the country's widespread poverty, malnutrition, and poor hygienic and sanitary conditions, many of India's health issues are a result of inadequate policy implementation and the challenge of providing services to the country's 600 000 villages and 3700 metropolitan centres. Infant mortality in urban areas is 45, down from 225–250 per 1000 in the 1940s to 72 in 1997. Similar to the last example, the average life expectancy today is roughly 63 years, up from 32 in the 1940s, although it is 6.5 years longer in urban than in rural areas.

India has made progress in the fight against communicable diseases; polio may be eliminated within the next two years, while smallpox and guinea worm have both been wiped out. However, malaria still poses a serious concern since insecticide-resistant mosquitoes and chloroquine-resistant forms of the disease are common, and the effective control measures of the 1950s were allowed to wane too early10 in many other nations. An estimated 0.5 million people worldwide are estimated to die from tuberculosis each year, and AIDS-related deaths are anticipated to soon reach comparable levels.Both of these diseases have well-known control challenges: it is challenging to ensure that tuberculosis patients adhere to their medication schedules, and efforts to stop the spread of AIDS are hampered by widespread ignorance and a lacklustre control strategy.

Food and water

In the context of food, the population argument is obvious. There would be less of a need for food if India's population grew more slowly; roughly 90% of food demand is driven by population increase and 10% by income growth (which also changes the composition of food demand). 17 Since the 1950s, increases in food production have primarily been driven by increased area under cultivation; however, in recent decades, the increase has also been driven by improved yields. New seeds, greater chemical application, more irrigation, credit, and improved farm management have all contributed to this, but at increasing environmental cost.

The environment could be India's biggest future obstacle. Can India sustainably meet the rising food demand? One option is to import more food and export more other commodities. But India would likely wish to maintain a level of food security and employment that is rather high. Therefore, the main concerns are whether new crop varieties that are more environmentally friendly can be created and whether historical environmentally harmful practises can be altered. Considering the water supply can help illustrate some of the issues at hand.

Environmental damage

Everything in India is affected by the above-described confluence of population and policy influences. For instance, despite the fact that forest cover is declining relative to population, this is frequently due to land use patterns, such as those for tourism, which are driven more by rising wages and more affordable travel than by population expansion. The potential for pollution may increase due to India's rising energy consumption, although green energy options currently exist and are becoming more affordable. 26 In several Indian cities, the air quality has gotten so bad that it is already seriously harming people's health, possibly most so those with respiratory conditions.

Has India sacrificed environmental protection for economic growth? It has certainly struggled, but not as much as many other developing nations. However, a great deal of environmental harm could have been avoided at a low cost. Today, there is no doubt that many environmental damage costs (particularly health costs) are higher than those associated with prevention. It has taken some time for people to realise what has to be done and how to do it. However, it's now accessible. Population growth will increase pressures, but if management practises and policies can be made better, India may be able to better handle the expected population growth in the coming century while still pursuing more sustainable development.