What Will We Do When Machines Take Our Jobs?

From heavy industry to the gig economy, technology is constantly changing the way we live and work. Tech has come an astonishingly long way in recent decades and if we extrapolate our trajectory, the sort of ideas we see as literally magic today may very well be a reality within the next 30 years or so.

But First, The Storm...

This future is going to be shaped by what happens over the next decade. It is crucially important to recognise that progress so far has been made by exploiting human labor. From the explicitly forced labor of slavery to the manufactured consent of free market capitalism, human labor is key.

But this is set to change. With reports in recent years proposing that up to 40 percent of jobs will be automated by machines, the power balance between labor and capital will inevitably shift in favour of the latter. Eventually, and taken to its logical conclusion, there will be far, far more people than jobs available and unemployment may skyrocket to unimaginable heights.

What happens next? Take a moment to seriously ponder that question.

Let's allow our imagination to run free and envision what a future where work is extremely scarce may look like...

Scenario #1 Desertion

In much the same way that developing countries are often riddled with social problems around crime, substance addiction, poverty, and corruption, we may find powerful Western nations falling victim to a decrease in living standards so swift and profound that our governments cannot sustain the societies they govern. A loss of control, or wilful desertion may follow, leaving swathes of the population in poverty, with infrastructure crumbling and law and order in free-fall. Meanwhile, the wealthy beneficiaries of technological advancements enjoy an Elysium-style scenario.

Scenario #2 Emancipation

A stark contrast to the previous scenario is emancipation. If society chooses to truly embrace advances in technology and put automation to work for the benefit of all, we could see unprecedented levels of human prosperity and happiness. If technology was designed to be 100 percent sustainable and almost entirely automated, our society would look completely different. With jobs and money redundant, and all basic needs met, automation could deliver a veritable utopia compared to the grind of life as we know it today.

Scenario #3 Genocide

Perhaps the most extreme and cynical scenario could see the wealthy few, emboldened by the total control they have over the technology they wield, decide to simply make the vast majority of people disappear. In a society where the labor force is no longer needed, and consumers are no longer needed, what is the point of keeping them alive? Think of this like scenario #1, but with malevolent, rather than benign governance.

Scenario #4 Rejection

Protectionist governments may clamp down on the import and deployment of new technologies within their district altogether. This would preserve the status quo and naturally help prevent mass redundancy. Ultimately, however, this is a prolonging tactic, but by stifling the adoption of new tech governments would hold more influence over the labor market. At the risk of being outpaced by the rest of the world, these protectionist governments would subsequently be faced with the other scenarios listed here sooner or later.

Scenario #5 The Half-Way House

From today's vantage point, this scenario seems like the most likely outcome. It is inevitable that most jobs will be taken by machines, and in response we may see important policy changes such as the introduction of a basic income. This would largely preserve the existing order, enabling entrepreneurs to develop their ideas, consumers to continue consuming and the wealthiest few retain their control over the means of production. But even this scenario is a world away from what we have now, with an increase in leisure time, a decrease in financial strain, and a radically different relationship with work.

Indeed, the half-way house is probably the best outcome we can hope for as we begin to weather the storm of mass machine automation.