It's All About Convergence

Not too long ago I realized that of all my children, only my two oldest had memories of the bad old “dial-up” days. They were born in the mid to late 90s. Technology wise, most internet users subscribed to dial-up plans offered by the local telcos as well as local Internet Service Providers. In my town, we had two or three ISPs run out of basements. In those days, cellphones were just beginning to catch-on. But still, most cellphone users were businesspeople. 3G cell protocol was launched in Japan during that period. Windows 98, and Windows NT reigned supreme on most desktops; Novel version 3.2 and Digital Electronics DEC systems still ran most business networks. Lotus Notes was still the preference for business email systems. For consumers, AOL, Yahoo, and Excite dominated the Internet, and Ask Jeeves was the favorite search engine for most people looking for answers to problems.

In that world, the PC desktop was mission control. And Microsoft controlled that world (Windows licensing was the cash cow for Microsoft). The Apple OS was undergoing a revolution with the return of Steve Jobs to Apple in the late 90s. Yet, the Mac OS was not his focus. Like all tech visionaries who succeeded, Jobs was looking far into the future. And I’m not sure back in 1998-1999 he realized how he would absolutely change the world we lived in. First, with the launch of iTunes and the iPod in 2001, and later with the launch of the iPhone in 2007, Jobs would usher in a world of converged technologies. The iPod was launched at a time when applications like Napster were undermining the business model in the entertainment industry. In 2001, users were still tied to their desktops. A consumer had few options. They purchased a CD, and then they could play it on their CD player. By 2001, most PCs came with CD Players; the consumer could also play it on their stereo hi-fi system, Or if they had a newer car, the music could be played on the CD player installed in their car. The iPod broke through this barrier. It became an instant hit with young people. My oldest son got his first iPod player in 2004. The iPod destroyed almost all rival MP3 players within a couple of years (remember, Sony’s flash-based Walkman? Today, you can still purchase them on Ebay). The iPod was the first truly music-on-demand application. Back in those days, Apple iTunes licensed their music for under a dollar a song. This allowed consumers to purchase singles and have them available 24x7, if you had an iPod. This was the first warning shot fired across Microsoft’s bow. For children and students, this cut the first apron strings from their PC desktops. This was just the beginning.

Outside of Apple, technology was also changing. Broadband tech became less and less expensive, and by the late 1990s, it was being offered to residential consumers. For decades, only businesses had the financial means to subscribe to high bandwidth communications. Most subscribed to ISDN lines (Integrated Services Digital Network are services offered by the telephone companies, that allowed by voice and data to be delivered on copper lines). Most small to medium sized businesses used ISDNs to deliver voice to their call centers (this were called ISDN BRIs). Others used ISDNs to split voice and data over one copper wire. It wasn’t cheap, but it gave businesses a taste of what could be done. For residential consumers, however, ISDNs were too expensive. They were satisfied with their dial-up. However, the first DSL copper lines began to be packaged by the telcos in the late in 1990s. The telcos rivals, cable TV outlets had offerings of their own: Cable Internet. By 2005, the number of people with broadband in their house doubled.

Yet, there was another technology, which most people in the early 2000s never heard of: 4G. As most people know, 4G is a wireless technology that is employed by cell phone providers. 4G piggybacks on existing cellphone towers and are connected to internet backbones via fiber optic cabling. But the voice and the data are still two different technologies. Voice (CDMA) uses different equipment from 4G. Until recently, most cell phone companies offered phones with only voice, and throw in 3G for texting (How many people remember the small testing devices cell phone companies offered in the late 90s?) Texting was still considered a new value-added feature, and consumers were charged for each text). Blackberry dominated the wireless market, as their phones had the best converged technology out there. Businesses used Blackberry devices to make calls, text, and send/receive emails, and they had color screens. In the days before 4G (before 2009), most consumers used their cellphones for only voice and texts. 3G just was not useful for data. Yes, one could bring-up static HTML pages. But that was about it.

The iPhone launch not only revolutionized the wireless market, but it also signaled the end of the Windows desktop dominance. Yes, Windows is still around (Version 11 is now in beta testing). Blackberry did not move fast enough to catch-up. The iPhone changed everything. It had the first popular touchscreen (something Jobs insisted upon. He hated buttons); it extended the wildly popular iPod music schema. But most of all, it made Cloud Computing mainstream. The iPhone liberated the end-user from the browser. When 4G came online, the world changed overnight. Instead of going to Facebook.com, the user only needed to download the Facebook app on their iPhone. Cloud computing is now so ubiquitous, that few today can imagine a world without it. (Remember the phrase, “We have an app for that”?). Today, one can access Microsoft Office programs by subscribing to Office 365. No need to buy and install Office products; one can subscribe to the Microsoft “Cloud” (Office 365) and use Word, Excel, Teams, and Outlook via an app. And who today still uses their Blu-Ray player (if they still own one)? They subscribe to Netflix or Amazon Prime, instead. Most televisions today have these, and many other cloud apps preinstalled.

In the business world, both large and medium sized businesses began to move their servers, and applications to the Cloud in earnest once the price of bandwidth dropped a decade ago. IT Shops began to shed many hardware specialists as a result. Large managed service companies developed their own cloud platforms and began to host business infrastructure themselves. By far, the largest of these is Amazon Web Services (AWS). AWS hosts some of the largest cloud-based firms in the world (Facebook, Netflix, Sony, etc…). Amazon itself, which began as a book distribution service, launched its infamous Kindle online publishing service, rapidly expanded its offerings (AWS, Amazon Prime, Kindle). Like Walmart in the 1990s, Amazon Prime quickly began to dominate the retail world. Its expansion included the purchase of Whole Foods a few years back. If one company has leveraged its Cloud business, it is certainly Amazon.

I titled this piece, “It’s All About Convergence”. Convergence in this sense is the coming together of hardware technology, communication technology, and business. The new 5G wireless technology is designed for convergence. Everything converges on it (both voice and data). The telcos will offer high bandwidth services (up to 1 gigabit in urban areas). 5G, by definition, will be both 100% reliable and 100% secure. Without 5G the dream of driverless cars will just be that – a dream. Besides automated cars, any industry that utilizes robotics and AI will be the main beneficiaries. Think of a surgeon who will be able to remotely do heart surgery on a patient 2000 miles away. Or a factory filled with 3D printers and connected to an engineering firm on another continent. For consumers, the benefits are obvious. They can bundle all their services on one provider. No need for separate cable, cell phone, or DSL accounts. All their devices will be connected to a 5G base station in their home or office. All their tablets, smartphones, televisions, home security devices will have access to gigabit wireless service 24x7.

We’ve come a long way since the days of dial-up and AOL. Our children now live in a world, where they cannot imagine not being “connected”. Back in the 1990s, we lived in a world of technological silos. We had devices for entertainment and gaming; other devices for work; still other devices for communications. In the last 25 years, all of this has converged. And it will continue to converge as new technologies come online (think 7nm microprocessors and Quantum Computing). Who knows where we will be in 25 years?