Apple’s Foldable iPhone Is Finally Here. The Real Fight Isn’t About the Crease.

At around 2 a.m. Beijing time on September 10, Apple announced the foldable phone it had been rumored to be working on for years. The iPhone Duo folds like a book. When closed, the outer screen is about 5.4 inches. When open, the inner screen is about 7.6 inches, close to an iPad mini. The 256GB China model costs 15,999 yuan. The top 2TB version costs 26,499 yuan. It is the most expensive iPhone.

Counterpoint predicts that in 2026 Samsung will stay first in the global foldable phone market with 38% share. Apple could take 25% in its first year. Huawei is expected to reach 22%. TrendForce gives a narrower estimate: iPhone Duo shipments in 2026 will be about 5 million units, or 24.8% share. Samsung will ship about 7.1 million units, or 35.1%. Huawei will ship about 5 million units, or 24.8%.

That data needs context. Excluding Apple, combined foldable phone shipments from Android brands in 2026 would be only about 15.2 million units. That is a year-on-year decline of more than 20%. Component costs have risen sharply. Most brands are shipping flat or less. Apple’s new demand fills the gap left by the shrinking Android side.

Why Apple is entering now

Global smartphone shipments have been flat for years. Apple Intelligence has not shown enough hardware-driven difference in daily use. Apple needs new products that help it compete for existing users. Foldables are small in volume but profitable and growing. In the first half of this year, global foldable phone shipments rose 21% year on year. In the high-end market, foldables are one of the few categories with high gross margins.

Apple’s strategy is to arrive late. Samsung’s first foldable in 2019 had screen bubbling and other early failures. Huawei spent several generations working out hinges and display stacking. Apple waited until the technology path was clear and the supply chain was mature. The playbook is familiar: let competitors pay for early mistakes, then release a better version.

The price follows that logic. The $1,999 starting price (15,999 yuan in China) is below Morgan Stanley’s earlier forecast of $2,300. It is only about $100 more than the Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 8. Liz Lee, associate director at Counterpoint, said, “Keeping the iPhone Duo below $2,000 looks like a fairly bold step by Apple.”

The iPhone Duo’s gross margin is expected to be 53% to 58%. That is more than 20 percentage points higher than Samsung, 10 to 15 points higher than Huawei, and nearly twice Xiaomi’s. If sales fall short, Apple can cut prices first.

Supply chain: Samsung competes with itself

The foldable OLED panel is the hardest component to make at high yield. Samsung Display supplies it exclusively. BOE has entered other Apple product lines, but it is not in the first-generation foldable supply. Samsung Display plans to raise its foldable panel supply to Apple in 2027 from 8 million units to 15 million units, an increase of 87.5%.

Samsung is therefore Apple’s biggest competitor in the end market and the exclusive supplier of Apple’s core foldable component. It defends its own share while earning panel profit on every foldable phone Apple sells.

For hinges, Apple developed a variable-torque hinge with more than 100 parts. The core rotating shaft uses amorphous alloy. The main assembly suppliers are Amphenol and Shin Zu Shing. Chinese manufacturers are mostly second-tier suppliers. Yian Technology supplies liquid-metal hinge shafts. Jingyan Technology focuses on MIM precision parts. Lingyi iTech makes hinge precision structural parts, screen support plates, and ultra-thin vapor chambers. Lens Technology and Biel Crystal are co-primary suppliers of UTG ultra-thin flexible glass.

One odd result is a profit inversion. The overall foldable phone business has a net margin of only 3% to 5%. Jingyan Technology, a core hinge component maker, has a net margin of about 11%. Brand manufacturers hold inventory and fight price wars. Upstream component makers charge per piece and earn from scarce craftsmanship.

The iPhone Duo’s bill of materials is about $1,400. The foldable display and hinge together account for 40% to 50%. The display module’s value is about 194% higher than in a bar phone. UTG glass is eight to fifteen times higher. The hinge is entirely new and adds about $100 per unit. Huawei’s cost structure is more extreme. The Xuanwu hinge accounts for 20%, and the dual-screen module accounts for 50%. Together they reach 70%. That leaves Huawei room for a later price war.

Competitors respond

Samsung plans to expand its product line. It will improve the hinge and crease on the Z series. It also plans a new 4:3 device code-named Wide Fold and its first tri-fold device. North America is the hardest market to defend. Counterpoint predicts that in 2026 Apple could take 46% of the North American foldable market. Samsung’s share could fall from 51% in 2025 to 29%.

Huawei is going deeper on technology. On September 7, it launched the Mate XT 2 Ultimate Design, a wing-style tri-fold phone starting at 19,999 yuan. At the event, Yu Chengdong said Huawei has shipped more than 1 million tri-fold phones since it launched the first commercial model in 2024. Huawei is not trying to beat Apple head-on in book-style foldables. It is pushing hinges, display stacking, cooling, satellite communication, and on-device AI at the same time.

Xiaomi launched its first mid-fold phone, the Xiaomi 18 Fold, on the same day. It is looking for a ratio between the portability of a small fold and the large screen of a large fold. Chinese manufacturers are shifting from “can it fold?” to “is it better to use once folded?”

What consumers use foldables for

Survey data show the main uses for foldable phone owners. Messaging comes first at 58%. Email is 55%. Social media is 48%. Online shopping is 46%. Watching movies or TV is 37%.

The data points to a problem. A foldable phone can in theory balance a large screen and portability. It should satisfy communication, work, and entertainment at once. But most users do not make full use of the large screen when unfolded. Management groups prefer large screens. Surveys also show that buyers are conservative about price. Many see foldables as a fashion statement, not a productivity tool. The industry has pushed hardware forms to the limit, but it still lacks a clear answer to why a normal person needs one.

Apple’s entry point is there. TrendForce notes that the iPhone Duo does not simply chase a larger foldable screen. It focuses on crease improvement, reliability over time, consistency between inner and outer screens, and thin integration of the display module with the chassis. iOS 27 adds Split View side-by-side apps, continuity between inner and outer screens, and operation at different opening angles. Apple is trying to extend the foldable form into software and multitasking.

AI is the larger variable. As generative and multimodal AI reaches phones, use will move from single-app tasks to live translation, content generation, document summaries, and cross-app work. An unfolded foldable has more display space. It can show AI output, source material, and other apps at the same time. The next fight in foldables is not only thinner, lighter, and less visible creases. It is whether the phone can create an AI experience that a bar phone cannot. That will decide whether the category grows.

Back to the share forecasts

Apple’s entry will change the foldable market. It will redraw the map. It will not overturn it.

Apple has a large base of high-end iPhone users and strong lock-in through its devices and services. Taking 25% in its first year is likely. The impact in North America will be severe. But the category has been running for seven years. Samsung and Huawei have built barriers that will not fall overnight. Foldables are still only about 2% of the smartphone market. Tarun Pathak, research director at Counterpoint, makes a point that fits the data: Apple will intensify high-end competition, but the category still has room to expand. Foldable prices are still about three times those of bar phones. Mass adoption will take years.

Apple has raised its stocking target to about 10 million units. Analysts expect actual shipments of 6 million to 7 million. If sales fall short after launch, Apple could cut prices in late 2026 or early 2027. It has already shown that flexibility this year in its global push for share.