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Will This Crisis Force A Brexit Delay?

The impact of the pandemic will dominate that of Brexit. Yet both disproportionately hit the most vulnerable.

By Anton BlackPublished 4 years ago 7 min read
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Will This Crisis Force A Brexit Delay?
Photo by Jannes Van den wouwer on Unsplash

With Europe now in the middle of the Covid-19 pandemic, the focus of the UK has dramatically shifted. While the consequences of Brexit on equalities groups stay a concern, the highest risk to the wellbeing of vulnerable groups in Britain, and around the world, comes from the novel Coronavirus.

The impacts of Covid-19 don't just appear from the spread of the virus itself (in medical terms), but the government's response to the pandemic too. Government's actions have broader social and economic implications.

Mixed views

There are mixed views among politicians and analysts on whether Britain should remain allied with EU rules for longer in the wake of the pandemic.

The Sunday Telegraph reported that the refusal by Downing Street to extend the Brexit transition period was based in part on a concern that the EU may demand large payments to help deal with the impact of the pandemic.

Anthony Glees, University of Buckingham professor and leading political expert, said that a delay of up to five years might be required.

On January 31, at 11 pm the face of London's iconic Big Ben clock was projected onto 10 Downing Street. It marked the end of nearly half a century of UK membership of the European Union.

There were cheers as Big Ben's bongs reverberated in Whitehall while crowds sang God Save the Queen in Parliament Square.

A roller-coaster ride

Those chimes signalled the beginning of what was described as a roller-coaster ride by political analysts, with Britain and Brussels being tasked with brokering a new agreement to build a new permanent trading relationship between the two parties.

Johnson, at the time, just weeks into his new job as prime minister, backed by an 80-seat majority in the House of Commons, announced Britain would continue to abide by EU rules, as part of a transitional period, until December 31 and then it would be out, deal or no deal.

Another issue occupied Britain's headlines

On that historic last day of January when the nation recorded the first two cases of COVID-19.

It was little noticed as Britain broke its ties with Brussels that a global pandemic would change everything within a matter of weeks.

The big question now is whether the government's cast-iron, written-in-law guarantee that the December 31 deadline will survive COVID-19.

Added to the drama has been Johnson's life-or-death battle against COVID-19 in St. Thomas's hospital intensive care unit where he had emergency treatment with only a 50-50 probability of survival, he told the papers.

Boris Johnson pulled through, but we cannot say the same about his December 31 deadline.

Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, talks between British and EU negotiators to reach a permanent trade agreement resumed in the week beginning April 20 after being put on hold for nearly two months.

December 31 remains

While the official spokesperson for Johnson continues to insist that the deadline of December 31 remains, experienced political commentators believe that the pandemic will force a change in the deadline, with the transitional period continuing into 2021 or even later.

David Frost and his counterpart in Brussels, Michel Barnier, agreed to restart negotiations after two months with little contact.

Yet few diplomats expect it to narrow the gaps between the two sides, said the Economist in a recent editorial.

The Economist has added that it makes the December deadline for a deal questionable, with six months left to strike a deal.

Experience suggests it is too short a period both to negotiate and to approve any deal, the Economist said.

With COVID-19 already leading to the delay of the Olympic Games and the COP 26 global climate summit, why not use an option in the Brexit withdrawal agreement to extend the deadline by up to a couple of years by mutual consent, the Economist questioned.

Although the present transition period ends on December 31, an extension will need to be decided in a matter of weeks, and no later than this coming June.

Glees defines the costs that Brexit would have on the British economy, with the added costs of the ongoing pandemic, as horrific.

"One might suppose reason would dictate delaying any Brexit deal till after the pandemic has been resolved in economic terms, perhaps waiting as long as five years," Anthony Glees said.

However, Anthony Glees added, the UK government made it very clear that it will not ask for any extension, nor would it agree to one if proposed by the EU.

Glees thinks that Brexit, and if necessary, a no-deal Brexit and trading under WTO, are not only an ideological fixed point but also the glue that keeps Johnson's government together.

"I suspect that although Brexiters understand they're about to inflict a double whammy on the wounded British people, they reckon that the COVID-19 hit will conceal the Brexit hit since the latter will strike the UK, no one will notice the former," Glees said.

Before the COVID-19 outbreak, Brexit supporters suggested, said Glees, that there would be large growth after Brexit by trading in markets around the world and buying cheap food globally.

"But COVID-19 has sunk this aim. World markets will be in chaos, and each country will look to its industries first. It cannot be in any other way," said Glees.

We need to extend the transition period

In an article Anand Menon, the director of the UK in a Changing Europe initiative together with Angus Armstrong from the Rebuilding Macroeconomics network, which said pandemic disruption makes it improbable that a broad trade deal can be achieved before the transition period expires.

"It makes sense to take the opportunity to extend," they say, citing a recent opinion poll showing the British public think Johnson should revise the December deadline.

London's Labour mayor Sadiq Khan has also intervened.

Khan, accusing the Conservative government of putting belief before the national interest, has urged ministers to ask an extension of Brexit transition period with the EU.

Political commentator Asa Bennett wrote on the Daily Mail that "The coronavirus may have sidelined Brexit in recent weeks, but the clock is still ticking down on Britain's transition period out of the EU."

Downing Street has gone to great lengths, said Bennett, to reject the idea of an extension, making clear Britain will not request an extension and will say no if the EU requires one, thereby maintaining the issue off the table.

In a joint communique, Downing Street and Brussels said they had agreed on the need to have further negotiating rounds to make real, substantial progress in the negotiations by June.

Only then will it will be clear whether the last goodbye will be December 31, or whether the COVID-19 will force a different strategy.

Brexit will intensify some of Covid-19 consequences.

Despite being very different phenomena, Brexit and the Coronavirus will hit the disadvantaged in similar ways, though to a varying degree.

Indeed, Brexit is likely to intensify some of the consequences of the coronavirus. Leaving the EU will make it harder to fight this pandemic. For instance, Britain has said that it will not seek to remain part of the (ECDPC) European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, which manages the surveillance of infectious diseases, including new coronaviruses. The European Medical Agency (EMA), which has a centralised system for licensing novel drugs; or the EU Clinical Trials Register.

According to a Scottish Parliament report, this indicates that UK patients may not be able to take part in EU-led clinical trials for new life-saving treatments, and Britain could experience delays in accessing new medications.

The UK is now excluded from EU decision-making, and any joint support packages, as an example, the EU's Coronavirus Response Investment Initiative, on the coronavirus pandemic.

The loss of EU citizens working in the national health and social care sector since the referendum, during a time when they are most needed, is especially unfortunate.

People who face various disadvantage and inequality, with limited social and financial resilience, are most vulnerable to both Brexit and the Coronavirus. Steps should be taken not only to protect the health of our vulnerable communities, and, more broadly, their quality of life, including their financial security, access to resources, mental health, and social relationships.

Only time will tell if the Chancellor's response to the Coronavirus outbreak will be enough to meet people's needs.

Recent events told us no one has simple solutions to complex issues, that every action has consequences and, as Georges Canguilhem said:

To err is human, to persist in error is diabolical.

politics
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About the Creator

Anton Black

I write about politics, society and the city where I live: London in the UK.

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