Could Nancy Pelosi Soon Be Ousted As Speaker of the House?

There are closely guarded talks aimed at forming a coalition in the 117th Congress to oust Nancy Pelosi (D-California) as the House speaker. There are meetings between House Republicans and 10 Democrats who voted against Pelosi when she became speaker in 2019.

Serious efforts are being made to prevent Pelosi from becoming speaker, aided by Republicans and Democrats alarmed by her party's extreme rhetoric and policies such as "defund the police," a veteran senior congressional aide advising several members of Congress said.

The odds of success are less than 50-50. Still, it is one of the most fascinating challenges of recent decades, said the aide, who wished to remain anonymous.

The aide declined to give details of who from either party is participating in the negotiations, saying that would likely make it impossible to continue the talks.

Spokesmen for Pelosi and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-California) did not respond to a comment request.

Pelosi told reporters earlier this week that she believed she had "wrapped up" the speakership position, which will likely be decided when the 117th Congress officially convenes on January 3, 2021.

Pelosi's hold on the Speakership job- she was the first woman to become speaker in 2007 and is still the only woman who has ever held the powerful post she regained in 2019 - could be jeopardized by the unexpected Republican gains in November's elections and the 10 Democrats who previously opposed her re-election if the secret talks succeed.

Pelosi and other Democrats counted on 10 to 25 seats to add to the majority they won in 2018. Yet, after counting votes, it was Republicans who won at least 10 seats.

If all 432 members of the House, who have been unchallenged since November, appear physically as required by the Constitution, Pelosi would need at least 216 votes to retain the speaker's office, which currently has 434 members following the death of Republican Luke Letlow (R-La.) on December 29

But nearly two dozen House Democrats have withdrawn from the nation's capital in the past six months due to the pandemic.

One of them, Rep. Rick Larsen (D-Wash.), announced on December 23 that he had tested positive for the virus and would begin voting by proxy. Voting by proxy isn't allowed in the speakership vote on the House floor.

If other Democrats who voted by proxy because of concerns about the virus get even fewer votes, the vote's quorum could be even lower. If the number reaches 214, a coalition would need only the votes of four of the 10 Democrats and all 211 Republicans to defeat Pelosi.

A senior House Republican aide, who asked not to be identified, said on Dec 30th that it was no surprise that Democrats wanted to run away from Pelosi's failed leadership.

Democratic campaign strategists have been unusually quiet about the prospect of a potentially anti-Pelosi coalition.

Many Republican strategists did not hesitate to speak out, but their views were far from unanimous.

Brian Darling, a former senior adviser to Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and founder of Liberty Government Affairs, said Pelosi's vote-getting abilities were known but may not be sufficient.

He said that the speaker needs a majority of those present to vote for her to get a majority. If a coalition votes "present" as a protest vote, it is likely that the coalition can either negotiate with Pelosi on concessions on rules and committee chairmen or coalition with Republicans to elect another speaker.

The latter is unlikely, but if Pelosi loses in the first round, her power will be weakened. She could simply step aside and find a new speaker.

Matt Mackowiak, a Republican strategist based in Washington, D.C., and Austin, Texas, a longtime congressional aide, said that he doubted Pelosi would lose. He also said she will get the votes she needs, but it will be tight.

Veteran conservative advocates also expressed differing views on the issue.

David Williams, president of the Taxpayers Protection Alliance, said that a defeat for Pelosi could lead to more cooperation and less division in the House.

Williams sent on to say that if that happens, hopefully, that means taxpayers will have a louder voice in the House. The far-left wing of the Democratic Party will have less influence.

Any chance of bringing back fiscal responsibility is a welcome sign this new coalition would have fiscal responsibility as one of its main goals.

But Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform, said the coalition strategy made no sense for Republicans' long-term electoral prospects and could be dangerous for Democrats involved in the anti-Pelosi effort.

Norquist asked why the Republicans would want to put their fingerprints on the House of Representatives' leadership, whose goal is to expose the left-leaning, incompetent, and failed Democratic leadership for the next two years?

Republicans want a clear distinction between Democrats and Republicans by 2022 when there is every reason to believe Republicans should retake the majority.

Norquist additionally said that it is difficult to "distinguish shirts from skins" when playing in the other party's leadership battles. He said that "every collection of Democrats who voted Pelosi out is targeted at primary opposition." And even Democrats in Republican-leaning districts have a left-leaning majority in the primaries

Rick Manning, president of American for Limited Government, said the two Georgia Senate runoffs, which will be decided on January 5, 2021, are more important to Republicans than the speakership contest.

Manning said Pelosi is a master at bringing together votes for radical politics and given her success over the last two years when many of them represented districts won by President Donald Trump, I think the best way to stop the socialists is to defeat her two Senate candidates in Georgia and put a peg in their hearts, at least temporarily.