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Bipolarity Despite Ukraine's Dreams

Many strategic experts and analysts sing about what they see as a strong return to the Russian role, influence and power in the global arena, and they see that the Russian moves stand in opposition to the American influence

By Roxanne MannPublished 2 years ago 6 min read
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Bipolarity Despite Ukraine's Dreams
Photo by Will Francis on Unsplash

Many strategic experts and analysts sing about what they see as a strong return to the Russian role, influence and power in the global arena, and they see that the Russian moves stand in opposition to the American influence. They dream of the return of an ancient era that ended with the disappearance of the Soviet Union, and they have not yet been able to get rid of the ideas of the 20th century and look to a future in which Russia does not play a big role. The Ukrainian crisis - and before that the civil war in Syria - provided what they see as a glimmer of hope for them in the face of unjust US policies. However, the global reality is more complex than what is reflected in the Ukrainian crisis, in which China has so far decided not to play a prominent role. The changing global reality is witnessing a fierce conflict and raging competition that does not occur between Russia and America, but between America and China.

Russia is a poor and medium-powerful country, and like the Gulf states, its economy is almost completely dependent on the abundant natural gas and oil in its lands, in addition to other raw materials. In addition to its land resources, Russia owns only its military industries because of the legacy of the Soviet industrial base that it inherited and exports from it to many third world regions.

Beijing agrees with Moscow on the need to reshape the world order in their favour, and although their relations do not rise to the level of an official alliance, its hostility to the American vision is enough to coordinate their strategic moves to confront what they consider “unilateral American military advantages at the expense of the security of others.”

Despite the huge energy resources and military industries, Russia cannot be found on the list of major economies, topped by the United States, with a gross national product approaching $23 trillion this year, followed by the Chinese economy with nearly $19 trillion, according to International Monetary Fund data. . While America and China are followed by a wide interval, countries separated between them and Russia, which comes in 12th place, and is preceded by Japan, Germany, France, India, Britain, Italy, Brazil, Canada and South Korea. Russia's total output does not exceed $1.5 trillion, a very modest number compared to China or America, and is expected to decline by 25% this year due to the repercussions of the invasion of Ukraine and Western sanctions.

Since the end of the Cold War 40 years ago, Washington has dominated the global geo-strategic arena, and its political and military influence has extended to all parts of the world. Washington did not hesitate to engage in military confrontations, attack countries in the Balkans, and invade others in the Middle East, without fearing the reaction of any of the competing major powers. Washington pushed - although there were reservations and exceptions - to promote democracy around the world, and expanded NATO eastward.

Since President Xi Jinping came to power in China 10 years ago, the American elite began to pay attention to the growing power of China, which is no longer essentially industrial and commercial, but has extended strongly to the military and technological aspects.

As soon as he came to power, Joe Biden began to form a network of new alliances surrounding China aimed at confronting its rising power in the Indo-Pacific region. As a result, the "Ocos" triple alliance was established with Australia and Britain, and the Quad alliance with Japan, Australia and India.

Over the past two decades, US national security documents have indicated a significant escalation of threats from China, and some lower risks from Russia. The "Interim Strategic Guidance for the National Security Strategy" document - which was issued by the Biden administration last March - did not refer to Russia only twice as a rival power that represents a challenge to the United States. While the document mentioned China 15 times, all within the framework of the need to prepare to confront its threats, as it has become the only competitor capable of combining economic, diplomatic, military and technological power, and challenging American capabilities.

For all of the above, Beijing and Moscow have grown closer in recent years, in large part due to their similar concerns about the web of US military alliances near their immediate borders. Last February saw the Chinese and Russian presidents sign a statement in Beijing describing their increasingly close partnership as "without borders".

Trade globalisation and interdependence between countries have complicated international alliances of a military nature. At a time when Russia is a major energy supplier to Western Europe, China is the first trading partner of the United States and the European Union as well.

Russia has taken advantage of Washington's focus on countering the threats of a rising China, and has done what it sees as necessary to reshape Europe's security arrangements.

Beijing agrees with Moscow on the need to reshape the world order in their favor, and although their relations do not rise to the level of an official alliance, its hostility to the American vision is enough to coordinate their strategic moves to confront what they consider "unilateral American military advantages at the expense of the security of others."

Hence, the invasion of Ukraine represents the first major clash that reflects in its repercussions the harbingers of a geo-strategic system with which Russia aspires to develop into a tripartite polarity despite its economic and financial weakness by the standards of China and America.

This emerging order leaves the United States competing with two rivals simultaneously in geographically disparate parts of the world. The Biden administration now faces big decisions about whether to rearrange its priorities, increase its military spending, demand that allies contribute more, deploy additional forces abroad, and develop more diversified energy sources to reduce Europe's dependence on Moscow.

Russia may achieve its goals by invading Ukraine, Kyiv declares neutrality and will not enter NATO in the future, in addition to the scenario of Ukraine losing the Donbass region and its acknowledgement of the loss of Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.

But the main success of Moscow, which is its return as an international pole, an influential player in the world arena, remains a distant goal. Russia's technological and economic capabilities do not allow it to compete with China or the United States in these areas. Washington is not afraid that Moscow will present an alternative model to be followed (in contrast to the Chinese case), and Washington is not afraid that Moscow will compete with it on the ladder of standards of modern progress. It is only afraid of Russia standing by China in the upcoming bilateral conflict, not to mention that Russia itself will become a troubled country Or cause unrest in its neighbouring European countries.

politics
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Roxanne Mann

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