Down in the Pandemic Delta

Covid-19 was the original new virus. There are currently 7.674 billion test tubes — human beings — on this planet just waiting to be approached and infected. Viruses see each infection as an opportunity for a promotion. That’s in their job description as RNA (ribonucleic acid) viruses. They want to improve transmissibility. They really do not want to kill their hosts since that means they commit viral suicide. Yet as they become more infectious, they potentially become more deadly and resistant to the vaccines that worked on earlier versions.

When a virus makes copies of itself as it spread through a human petri dish, sometimes only changing a small, almost indiscernible amount. That’s normal and standard operating procedure. These small changes are called mutations. A virus with more than one new mutations is called a variant of the original virus since it presents a different profile and has a very different impact.

Tracking and identifying new variants are important to track because they raise important questions about defeating the virus.

· Are people more at risk for getting sick and dying?

· Will the current COVID-19 vaccines still be effective?

· Are there new or different things you should do to keep you and your family safe?

· Will you need a booster vaccine for your vaccine?

Coronavirus disease — 2019 (COVID-19) is a novel disease — a new variant — caused by the beta-coronavirus severe acute respiratory syndrome — coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). Variants of Covid-19 have been emerging and circulating around the world from the start of the pandemic. Variants are identified in labs and during epidemiological investigations using a process called sequence-based surveillance.

There is a Variant Classification scheme developed by the United States WHO that defines three classes of variants:

· Variant of Interest (VOI)

· Variant of Concern (VOC)

· Variant of High Consequence (VOHC)

There is a long and growing list of Variants of Interest and Concern. The big problem is the VOHC. Originally variants were given alphanumeric identifications. The long and growing list includes B.1.1.7, B.1.351, P.1, B.1.427, B.1.429, P1 and P2. Epidemiologists at the World Health Organization (WHO) have started identifying variants with Greek symbols and names to help avoid confusion about the ones they are discussing — Alpha, Beta, Epsilon, Gamma, Eta, Iota, Kappa, Zeta, and Delta. That last one — Delta — is fast becoming a VOHC.

According to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) a VOHC is “a variant for which there is evidence of an increase in transmissibility, more severe disease (e.g., increased hospitalizations or deaths), significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies generated during previous infection or vaccination, reduced effectiveness of treatments or vaccines, or diagnostic detection failures.

Possible attributes of a variant of concern:

· Evidence of impact on diagnostics, treatments, or vaccines.

· Widespread interference with diagnostic test targets.

· Evidence of substantially decreased susceptibility to one or more class of therapies.

· Evidence of significant decreased neutralization by antibodies generated during previous infection or vaccination.

· Evidence of reduced vaccine-induced protection from severe disease.

· Evidence of increased transmissibility.

· Evidence of increased disease severity.”

The Covid-19 Delta variant — originally called “the Indian variant” — was first detected in February 2021 in India causing a huge spike of COVID-19 infections in that country. Two months later in April, the variant was sequenced in only 1% of the CDC samples around the world. Only three months later, it represents over 6% of the sequenced samples according to the most recent data from the US CDC. The variant has spread rapidly and has now been identified in 74 countries, on every continent apart from Antarctica.

The Delta variant is now the dominant strain in the UK causing more than 91% of new infections This highly transmissible strain is threatening another lockdown that would cancel the government’s plan to lift the remaining coronavirus restrictions on June 21st. Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist at University College London, said that “the variant could lead to a substantial third wave of Covid-19 infections in the UK”. The fast spread has prompted France and several other countries to place new restrictions on travelers coming from the UK.

Experts believe the Delta strain is 40% more transmissible than the earlier Alpha variant. According to Dr. Fauci speaking at a White House Covid-19 briefing in early May 2021, “Clearly now its transmissibility appears to be greater than the wild [Alpha] type.” He added that the strain is now sequenced in 6% of the US samples. “This is a situation, the way it was in England where they had a B.1.1.7 [Alpha] dominant, and then the B.1.617 [Delta] took over." He emphasized that "we cannot let that happen in the United States.”

The UK, the recently identified Delta variant is now the leading cause of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. It is providing a cautionary tale for the rest of the world. Variants beget variants. This pandemic is not going away any time soon.