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Shaumik Saha: Surviving the Reopening

A detailed analysis on a potential reopening, and some key pointers for businesses on braving through such unprecedented times. Local and global markets addressed.

By Shaumik SahaPublished 4 years ago 5 min read
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To reopen or not to: A strictly business perspective

Most epicenters and severely struck regions have followed strict quarantines over the last couple of months. And after much debilitating uncertainty on the matter, talks are being had globally of a potential reopening within the following weeks.

I am not nearly adept enough to address this from a medical standpoint and therefore shall stick to a purely economic perspective on this.

Just a month's worth of redundancy for major products and utilities have shown us the consequences of bringing the global economy to a screeching halt- enormous layoffs, crude oil prices plummeting into valueless oblivion, major hotel chains shutting down, you name it.

In some very recently published predictive analytics from DDI, the most optimistic date they cold come up with for 100% eradication of the COVID19 virus was 9th December, 2020. Needless to say a quarantine that long would wreck utter havoc to the global economy on a scale never seen before.

Quarantines were not a cure. Their purpose was minimizing the spread, "flattening that curve". And one could say with fair confidence that that have been well achieved.

Source: SUTD Data Driven Innovation Lab DDI

The fact that a reopening must take place before a complete eradication or definitive cure is determined, is a no brainier. Again, strictly speaking from an economic perspective.

The latest on Middle East/ GCC markets:

As of April 27, 2020, a four phase reopening plan has been announced by the Dubai Government in order to ensure business continuity whilst enforcing strict health and safety regulations to prevent a further spread.

This was preceded by a 3 week long 24 hour lock-down, restricting all non-essential travel. That has worked to our favor. Hypothetical models from non-partisan, private research bodies predict a 97% eradication of new patients by May 11 in the UAE.

Neighboring states in the UAE and across the GCC have followed a very similar approach, and many are now heading to the "flattening" or "declining" stage of the curve. Conditions seem right for a well planned reopening.

Source: SUTD Data Driven Innovation Lab (DDI)

The latest on global markets:

We live in a time where major economies hardly function in silos. One major economy shut down equates to the global economy being in paralysis.

While ones such as China have resumed somewhat, major economic hotspots such as North America and Western Europe are yet to make final announcements on re-openings although there has been much talk about it.

Much speculation also surrounds the COVID19 specifics. Whilst many regions have seen flattening curves, concerns around reinfections and methods of practically ensuring H&S measures following a potential reopening are open for debate and wild guesses at this point in time.

Reopening or not, how does a business survive?

An important point of clarification here is the following; a reopening does not in any way guarantee that business activity will instantly spring back to normal. Far from it. It will be a while before restaurants and retail outlets see their glory days again; and B2B demand picks up.

In the meantime, the following are a few pointers to keep in mind:

(1) The quarantine was the time to plan: If you didn't, now is your final chance to do so. Reflect on the past few months. What are things that you've wanted to work on but didn't have time for. Restructuring? A new product? A major personal life change? Whatever. Now's your time to get that out of the way before business resumes to normal. And believe me, it will.

(2) Stick to your guns: Times of uncertainty are periods where you should do more of what works. You may have had many clients leave, but really focus on servicing well the ones that have stayed and kept you in work in such times. Further improve those client relations.

(3) Any work is good work when there isn't much work: If a project worth pursuing comes your way, take it up. Don't stutter too much on short term factors such as the pay; look at longer term prospects. Not many people are hiring or contracting now, consider yourself fortunate to have any work come your way at all.

(4) Don't jump the eCommerce/ digitization gun: There is a lot of talk around eCommerce and digitizing your business. Take a deep breath. Sure, now could be a good time to focus on certain aspects you haven't had the time to, such as digital marketing or eCommerce, however, you do not want to jump the gun. Here is a detailed article on why not: Shaumik Saha: “Your eCommerce Business Will Fail”

(5) Focus on situation critical variables: How has the crises affected your supply chains, client outreach and internal communications? Keep a track of what has changed. Make a reopening plan in accordance with that.

(6) Better money management: Identify and mitigate all nonessential costs for your business and on a personal level. Your stamina to stay in business really comes down to how long you can afford to.

(7) Follow health and safety protocols: You do not want to contribute to any further damage. Upon reopening, ensure social distancing and sanitization measures.

(8) Patience is the key: Now more than ever many outcomes will be beyond your control. Be patient about them, and wait for this situation to pass. Believe me, it will. With time, things will better.

Meanwhile, stay safe and all the best.

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Further Discussions with Shaumik Saha

Shaumik's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/shaumiksaha/

Shaumik's Twitter: https://twitter.com/shaumiksaha

Shaumik's Businesses:

Stride Plus Events Dubai: https://www.strideplus.com/

Gulfvakil: https://www.gulfvakil.com/

economy
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About the Creator

Shaumik Saha

Director, Stride Plus Events & Gulfvakil

My expertise lies in profitably taking ideas and products to their target market in the fastest, most cost-effective manner, quickening sales processes and ensuring exponential top-line growth.

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