Pentagon-Funded Think Tank

US continues to arm Ukraine even as the RAND Corporation has warned that a long war could escalate to a nuclear or Russia-NATO conflict.

The United States (US) has announced another arms package, including the 145-km range guided missile Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb, worth around $2.2 billion for Ukraine as the grinding war with Russia completes one year on February 24.

Out of the nearly $48 billion US aid for Ukraine in 2022, $24.9 billion was spent on weapons, according to American think tank Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). The aid is besides the $13 billion committed by NATO, the European Union (EU) and other allies to Ukraine.

The supply of military equipment worth billions to Ukraine in the name of protecting democracy and the liberal world order with no sight of an end to the war—which could escalate to use of nukes or a Russia-NATO confrontation—is ridiculous and inexplicable.

This is precisely what a RAND Corporation report has pointed out—avoid a long conflict in Ukraine to prevent a nuclear or Russia-NATO war.

Washington Post, never mentioned the report. What’s more shocking is that RAND is majorly funded by the US government, especially the Pentagon. Out of the $346 million revenue earned by the non-profit global policy think tank in the financial year 2021, 19.4% came from the office of the secretary of defence and other national security agencies, 11.3% from the Army and 10.5% from the Air Force.

The report, ‘Avoiding a Long War: U.S. Policy and the Trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict’, flags President Joe Biden and secretary of state Anthony Blinken’s “We will support Ukraine as long as it takes” rhetoric and fallacy.

USE OF NON-STRATEGIC NUKES

RAND frighteningly raises the plausibility of Moscow using nonstrategic nuclear weapons (NSNW) even as “some analysts have dismissed the possibility of NSNW use contending that Russia knows that employment of nuclear weapons would be self-defeating”.

Experts contend that President Vladimir Putin won’t use NSNWs due to the “lack of concentrated Ukrainian forces”, and the risk of “harming” Russian troops, drawing NATO into the war and further global opprobrium.

The report, however, considers the use of nukes “both a plausible contingency that Washington needs to account for and a hugely important factor in determining the future trajectory of the conflict”.

Once other conventional escalatory options have been “exhausted, Moscow may resort to nuclear weapons, and specifically NSNW use, to prevent a catastrophic defeat,” RAND says.

Stating that some Russian strategists have advocated the use of NSNWs for “accomplishing operational and tactical goals”, the report adds that they have also envisioned “pre-emptive employment of NSNWs against civilian targets—cities, military-industrial centres and government facilities—and against military ones, at least, in the context of a war with NATO”.

NATO-RUSSIA WAR

Since the US has signalled retaliation if Russia uses N-weapons, it “might lead to a tit-for-tat spiral that produces a NATO-Russia war” and could “lead to a direct US conflict with Russia, which could ultimately result in a strategic nuclear exchange”.

The risk of a nuclear or Russia-NATO war will “remain heightened” as long as the war continues, the report says.

Citing the November 2022 example of a Ukrainian S-300 missile landing in Poland, the report highlights the risk of an “inadvertent escalation” and fighting “unintentionally” spilling over to the territory of neighbouring NATO members even if Russia doesn’t use a nuke.

“A future targeting error could send a Russian missile into NATO territory, potentially sparking an action-reaction cycle that could lead to a full-scale conflict.”

In fact, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark A Milley had warned the Biden administration way back in October 2021 that the number one objective should be to avoid a “kinetic conflict between the US military and NATO with Russia”.

Despite Milley’s warning, the US fears that the war could lead to a direct confrontation with Russia—at least, that is what the annual NATO winter exercise of Baltic nations mimicking war with Russia indicates.