Putin May Have To Step Down To Save Russia

How long will he be able to handle the crisis?

Russia has changed rapidly since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Vladimir Putin has made significant contributions to this. He has been in power for 20 long years. This time he turned Russia into a first-class capitalist country. It has also achieved economic and political development by competing with the western world. Moscow can now be compared to the capital of any European country.

Dazzling shopping complexes, Gucci handbags, BMWs, the world's largest McDonald's, everything is now at hand. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the inherited country, the Russian Federation, was plundered with national resources. As a result, a few dozen very rich classes are created. Putin himself is one of them. An aristocratic and middle class also developed during this time. These groups of people have enthusiastically welcomed Putin's rule. Although Putin is authoritarian, his leadership qualities are widely accepted in Russia.

Prohibition In Russia

But is the situation after the war in Ukraine the same as before? The Russian people are losing everything after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Several European countries, including the United States, have imposed strict sanctions on Russia. As a result, Russia's economic trade and communication with the West are almost closed. iPhone and Google Play are not available. The way to withdraw foreign money from local banks is closed. Before the war, Russians traveled to different parts of the world.

But now it's all over. They are in danger as a result of the sudden onset of war. Shopping with Visa or MasterCard has stopped. Many countries have suspended ties with Russian airlines. Airspace in many countries has been banned for Russian aircraft. Due to the lack of foreign equipment, most Russian aircraft cannot fly in the sky.

But President Putin says he does not care about foreign sanctions. Rubles have stabilized thanks to efforts by Russia's central bank. The stock market has also started its activities. Putin has called the imposition of sanctions by Western countries a declaration of war on Russia. He reassured his countrymen that Russia had complied with Western sanctions. Not only that, those countries are in danger of taking action against Russia.

But how true is the president? Russia's central bank chief, Elvira Nabiullina, has told the Russian parliament that sanctions have led to an economic crisis in all areas. Consumer goods, imported from abroad, played a key role in Russia's economic development. But now the factory is going to close as a result of stopping the import of those products. Although it is possible to continue the work for the time being, if the ban is maintained for a long time, the country will face a difficult crisis.

According to Nabiullina, the country will face problems in all types of production, big and small. Not only the central bank but also the country's experienced economists have warned. If the situation does not change, the gross national product (GDP) will fall by about 8 percent and inflation will fall by about 20 percent. The World Bank has already said that Russia's GDP will shrink by 12.2 percent by 2022. However, some EU countries are importing Russian oil and gas, valued at 300 million a day.

But if all European countries stopped importing oil and gas from Russia, the crisis would intensify. Three and a half hundred foreign companies have already closed their operations in Russia. As a result, millions of salaried employees have become unemployed. In response, the mayor of Moscow said that an emergency program of three and a half billion rubles is being taken to help these unemployed people.

So is Putin's war only against neighboring countries? His war is also against the people of his own country. The war in Ukraine cost Russia about 20 million a day. But a survey by the Institute for International Finance found that much of Russia's economic success over the past 20 years would be eroded by Western sanctions.

Economic stagnation was one of the reasons for the collapse of the Soviet Union. The military crisis in Afghanistan was also one of the important reasons. The Soviet Union has been waging war in Afghanistan for almost ten years. About 15,000 soldiers were killed during this time. Mikhail Gorbachev, then President of the Soviet Union, withdrew all troops from the country, saying the victory was not possible. The last troops were withdrawn from Afghanistan on February 15, 1989. But only three and a quarter years later, on December 26, 1991, a republic called the Soviet Union collapsed. The fear is, is Russia going to face a similar crisis?

How will the crisis be resolved?

There are two ways to resolve the crisis that has now arisen as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war. One is that Russia will win this war or the other is that Ukraine will defeat Russia in this war. A diplomatic solution could be the third way, that way, the crisis could be resolved through negotiations. But given the current situation, the way to a diplomatic solution is not open at the moment. At the outset of the aggression, Putin may have thought that Kyiv would easily fall and a pro-Russian government would be established.

But in reality that did not happen. The Ukrainian army bravely defeated the Russian army. After the failure of the occupation of Kyiv, the Russian army came to the east and south and gathered. With their unprecedented success, Ukrainian troops now believe they can defeat Russian forces in battle. Their war strategy and morale have improved with the help of modern weapons from the western world. Fearing early in the war, Volodymyr Zelensky agreed to most of Russia's demands.

But now he has changed his mind. He denounced Putin as a "war criminal." How can Zelensky make peace with a man who has the blood of his countrymen on his hands? The people of the world did not compromise with Hitler's fascism. The Ukrainians will not make a treaty with Russia yet. They called Putin Mariopol's butcher.

On the other hand, Putin will not be able to move away from the battlefield even if he faces a catastrophe on the battlefield. Russian expert Ivan Kravtsov says this is Putin's war. He did not accept the collapse of the Soviet Union. So he wants to write a new history by rejecting that 'historical catastrophe'. He must win this war. Otherwise, he will face a rebellion in his own country.

May 9, Russia's World War II victory over Germany. So he will officially declare war on Ukraine on the same day. The Russian president may declare victory if Russian troops occupy Ukraine's eastern and southern borders.

New tactics of the US

Russia-Ukraine is no longer limited to these two countries. The battle is now between Putin and the West. A new Cold War has begun. No one can say how long this war will continue as it has not been resolved diplomatically. Vladimir Putin is in great danger now, and the United States understands that. So the United States is determined to break Putin, not just twist him.

Recently, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin visited Kyiv and said that Washington's goal is to weaken Russia in this war. As if Russia does not dare to attack any country in the future. Last month, the White House released a draft National Security Strategy. America wants to keep Russia at bay. The United States wants to isolate Russia not only militarily but also economically and diplomatically. Russia has been expelled from the UN Human Rights Council as part of the initiative.

Russia has a big problem, it has to fight this war alone. But Ukraine is joined by 30 NATO and European Union countries. But Russia's allies China and India have maintained commercial ties but are not providing any military assistance. War means not only the opportunity to use new weapons but also the great opportunity to make a profit.

It is easy to assume that the US military budget will increase further. This is good news for the military industry. So Ukraine's Western allies are expected to continue fighting for a long time. The main goal may be to weaken Russia and re-establish US military dominance, without hesitation, even if Ukraine has to make sacrifices.

So the only alternative to this situation is to remove Putin from power. He started this war and this war can only end with his fall. According to British sources, about 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed so far in the war. About 10 generals were killed. The people of Russia may not yet know the real situation to maintain strict secrecy. But one day the bodies of the Russian soldiers will return home. Many soldiers will return to the country after losing their limbs.

Today or tomorrow there will be an explosion of protest and anger within the country against this war. There will also be dissatisfaction among high-ranking army officers and the privileged elite. News has already spread that Putin is alone inside the Kremlin. He blamed the military failure on several top generals and sent them to prison. Even the richest people in the world have begun to criticize Putin.

How long will Putin be able to deal with these situations and stay in power?