Chan Economics LLC, Public Speaker
Chief Global Economist & Public Speaker JPM Chase ('94-'19).
Senior Economist Barclays ('91-'94)
Economist, NY Federal Reserve ('89-'91)
Econ. Prof. (Univ. of Dayton, '86-'89)
Revealing the True Details Behind the U.S. Employment Report (Released in Early June 2020)
First, there was no manipulation of the data. However, during the month of May 2020, BLS employees compiling the data for the Household Survey (used to compute the national unemployment rate) counted an excess number of workers that did not show up for work as being employed in May 2020.
Are US Stocks Cheap Today?
Of course, not! The forward Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio (using Consensus analyst estimates for Earnings) for the S&P 500 Index stood at a whopping 21.6 (as of June 1, 2020). This compares to the 5-year, 10-year, 15-year and 20-year averages for this ratio of 16.7; 15.0; 14.6 and 15.5, respectively. None of these come even close to the nose-bleeding levels we are seeing today.
Oh No! Some Workers May Not Want To Return To Work?
Oh No! Some Workers May Not Want to Return to Work? The Federal Reserve reported in its latest Beige Book report that the enhanced $600.00 in extra Unemployment Benefits is discouraging some workers from returning to work. Why should anyone be surprised?
What is the best way to test the effectiveness of a new Covid-19 vaccine during the summer months?
What may be the best way to test the effectiveness of a new Covid-19 vaccine during the summer months? The importance of developing a successful vaccine should not be underestimated because to get the US economy back on its feet, we need consumers to be confident enough to go out and spend money. A recent survey of US Internet Users conducted in May 2020 by Coresight Research debunks the myth that economic activity is mostly being curtailed mostly by the US “Shelter in Place Orders.” This survey revealed that 68% of US adults plan to continue to avoid visiting public locations when the lockdown ends. Interestingly, a sizable share of US adults also plan to avoid: Shopping Centers (45%), Movie Theatres (44%), Sports Events (40%), Public Transport (40%) and even International Travel (37%). Such evidence suggests that when we finally introduce a new Covid-19 vaccine --- we better be sure it is effective! Otherwise, the public confidence that is so badly needed to re-start the US economy after the lockdown, may end up being a laggard and elongate the path towards a genuine economic recovery.